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Tuesday, October 19, 2004
Market Recap
It was a painful day for some market participants as another head fake fooled many early in the day. By the closing bell, the Dow was down -58 points and closed at the lows of the day. The NASDAQ fell -13 points and also closed at the day's low. The S&P was down -10 points and also closed at the low of the day. Support for the S&P is 1100, support for the NASDAQ is 1900, and support for the Dow is still the 9750 level I have mentioned a few times before. There could be a bounce at these support levels, but as I have said before, the charts of these indices is not looking good. This is not the time for buy and hold type trading or investing. In this market, you should be in and out of stocks quickly, locking in gains when you have them, and cutting losses on trades that go south fast.
Many charts are looking very good tonight even though the charts of the major indices look awful. This is a sign that we will be in a stock picker's market for at least a few months. By this I mean the indices may trade flat while some selective stocks go up. We have many of these stocks listed on the bulletin right now. I cannot post all of the charts tonight but when you take look at some of these bulletin stocks, you will find they have great looking charts and have been leaders in the market recently. Some of these stocks include DITC, RNOW, ELOS, KMRT, JUPM, CRM, AIRT, and RIMM. I have added some new leaders to the bulletin tonight such as former bulletin stocks TSAR, QCOM, and OSTK.
Earnings That Matter
We have heard or will be hearing a slew of very important earnings announcements this week. There are some very big names with earnings announcements coming up. Perhaps the most anticipated earnings are coming out on Thursday.
Google is set to announce their earnings for the first time as a public company. The stock is rallying in preparation of this big release. GOOG started off with all sorts of issues surrounding the IPO, and many people (including myself) figured $130+ per share was a ridiculous price to pay. Now, some faithful followers are paying that much and more. The expectations for Google are tremendous, almost on the verge of ridiculous. It is hard to gauge what the reaction in the stock will be after the news hits the street. It has been moving on nothing but momentum since the IPO date. It is up nearly 70% in just two short months, without ever having to prove itself. If there was ever a stock not to play into earnings, I think Google is it.
IBM announced yesterday and their report was good. EMC, MOT, and TASR are some of the bigger names that released earnings today. On Wednesday, AMGN, LU, GLW, GD, JPM, and PFE are some of the big names reporting. On Thursday, it is earnings day for AMZN, BRCM, GOOG, KLAC, and MRK, just to name a few. These are all very important earnings announcements, because they will help us gauge where the market and possibly the economy are heading in the coming months. If these companies can show decent results and provide a solid outlook, the market could start to take shape for a year end rally.
Allstate is one of the largest home insurance companies. With all the hurricanes we witnessed this year; their results will be the catalyst for the entire insurance sector. Bad results due to the hurricane damage could take many stocks in the sector down. Considering the scandals that are being investigated by the NY Attorney General in the insurance sector, I doubt we will see any of these stocks get a lift even if earnings are surprisingly good.
AMZN and UPS will help us figure out what the consumer is REALLY feeling. If sales are strong at Amazon, it means people are still buying. Shipping giant UPS is also a good indicator of consumer behavior. If they had a strong quarter, it is further confirmation that consumers are buying. Weakness in one company will most likely be reflected in the other.
Finally, we know that airlines will report some pretty bad numbers. The mere cost of fuel alone ensures the airline numbers will disappoint the street. DAL is one of the airlines that will most likely file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. This earnings report may be the death of this stock as we know it. Their report will also weigh heavily on the rest of the airline stocks.
There are too many stocks reporting earnings to list here. Please remember to know when your stock reports. It is very risky to hold stocks through earnings when we are not in a bull market phase. Pay close attention this week and try not to buy blindly into earnings.
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