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Thursday, October 14, 2004
Market Recap
Yesterday's selling continued today with another brutal day in the market. Sellers continued to take this market down with heavy follow through selling that took the big three indices back to bear status. All three are now firmly below there 200 SMA's including the S&P which was the last to fall. The Dow closed with a loss of -107 points, the NASDAQ fell -17 points, and the S&P dropped -10 points.
Oil spiked above $55 today, and I am convinced we will see $60 by November. I could be wrong, but $35 a barrel is most likely a thing of the past. With oil at record highs, there are some news agencies pumping up the alternative energy stocks. I do not want anyone to get caught up in the hype so I decided to take a look at these stocks for myself and show you with tonight's charts why I would not buy these stocks just yet. Most of these stocks are below there 200 SMA so they are not buy candidates in my opinion.
Automotive World is Out of Gas
News is out today from GM, and they really blew the estimates. The analysts were calling for $.96 a share. GM made a respectable $.78 a share, but still not nearly enough to please Wall Street. I mentioned in recent weeks in this commentary that car manufacturers might have trouble meeting earnings numbers, new incentives (now being released almost weekly) will be used to draw in buyers, and these incentives always hurt the bottom line. I think there is some evidence of that with the disappointing GM news today. In addition to their lower than expected earnings, GM forecasted lower for the rest of the year. I would say we can expect similar announcements and misses from the other auto manufacturers.
$10.00 A Day
I keep stressing cash preservation as the way to greater wealth in the stock markets. When the markets are against us, we need to step back and take a deep breath. Holding cash is not such a bad thing. While you are holding cash, try to accumulate more cash by saving a mere $10 a day. If you can put away $10 a day, in a year you would have over $3,600 to add to your trading account by year's end. Having the cash in your account ready to trade when the markets are ready is the way to make big money in the stock market. The hardest lesson to learn is discipline; it is also the most important lesson in trading.
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