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Thursday, October 07, 2004
Market recap
Wow! What happened? Yesterday we had a very strong close with heavy buying in the last hour. Today was a complete reversal with selling accelerating into the close. Yesterday I had mentioned that the NASDAQ had been up for seven days in a row, and today would have been eight days in a row. I guess that was asking a little too much of the NASDAQ. The streak ends today with the NASDAQ down -23 points. The Dow was crushed with a triple digit loss that seemed to come out of nowhere. The selling picked up in the last hour and the Dow fell -115 points. The S&P lost -11 points.
Martha Stewart Starts Her Time
There is big news out tomorrow; Martha Stewart is going to jail! Well, that is not really the big news but that is all the media will be focused on. The big news I am interested in tomorrow is the jobs report released before the market opens. This employment report will no doubt move these markets one way or the other, and after the lousy close today, you have to believe the report will disappoint Wall Street. The second presidential debate is tomorrow night. Oil hit a new record high today and closed above $52.50. Earnings season kicked off tonight with Dow component Alcoa reporting after the bell. Tomorrow GE reports before the open. Yes, earnings season is upon us again so if you are long, be sure you know when your stocks will be reporting. It is very risky holding stocks through earnings so hold at your own risk. There is plenty of news for the market to digest tomorrow so trading could be volatile.
Here is a topic we discussed just a few days ago. Once again, the general news agencies seem to be a few steps behind TWPD. http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/06/news/economy/oil_w...
Looks like heating oil prices are going through the roof. That does not bode well for everyone this winter. With oil topping $52 a barrel today, there just does not seem to be an end in sight for the high costs of energy. If the price keeps going the way it is, we will touch $60 a barrel before the end of the year. That is certainly not good for the economy. What is the Fed missing? If interest rates keep rising because the Fed still thinks the economy is moving along well, that will just add fuel to the fire. You do not raise rates when oil prices are at record highs, get a clue Mr. Greenspan. For now, the markets continue to shrug off high oil prices, but if oil prices keep going up, the stock market will have to react at some point. High energy costs effect too many sectors of the economy, and they weigh too heavily on consumer sentiment for it not to cause a reaction.
We did a commentary the other night on Mount St. Helens and how nature is teaching us a lesson in explosive stocks. It seems that scientists are now downgrading the threat level for a volcanic eruption. It is very interesting and timely because it fits in so well with the lesson we discussed. It just goes to show you that even when every indicator tells you a stock is going to take off, sometimes nothing happens. You have to remain flexible when reading your charts. Like the weather, charts can change from day to day and what looks good today may not look good tomorrow. MSSN is an example of this. MSSN's chart looked great yesterday but today's action now makes it look ugly. We have been taking positions in stocks that have every indicator telling us they are ready to rocket. Sometimes, they do not go as predicted, but more often than not, they do.
With today's strong sell off, there is not much to update in the comments area of the bulletin. There are no new stocks tonight either. Now we wait to see the results of the employment report tomorrow.
OTC BB Watch List
- None
Here are some recent IPO's with good looking charts. They will not be added to the Bulletin because the volume is too thin.
- LMRA
- LPL
- SRVY
- RNOW
- ECST
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