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Tuesday, October 05, 2004
Market Recap
Oil prices hit a new record high today, and it is absolutely soaring. It rose well over $1.00 and closed above $51.00 today. This spike in oil coupled with a slew of earnings warnings and/or lowered guidance announcements from a number of companies this morning put the skids on the stock market, at least for today. The Dow was down -38 points, the NASDAQ closed up +3 points, and the S&P was flat. Although oil prices are at record highs, the NASDAQ seems to be unaffected by it. The NASDAQ chart looks good and looks ready to burst above its 200 SMA soon.
Mother Nature Teaches Us Again
Mother Nature has struck big this year with four hurricanes on the east coast, just a couple weeks ago there was an earth quake on the west coast, and now there is volcano getting ready to explode. Could the volcano eruption be coinciding with a stock market eruption? Could Mother Nature be trying to teach us about the markets? Of course they have nothing to do with each other but there is a point here. It is amazing how much life mirrors nature and how much everything in life can be seen in the natural world. We just have to learn to open our eyes and our minds and be able to see the lesson.
Mount St. Helens in Washington State is getting ready to erupt again. It has become quite active in recent days and every indicator is calling for major explosive action. The scientists are watching very closely and have predicted a 70% chance of a major volcanic eruption within the next day or so. So what does this have to do with trading stocks? Not much at all, unless you are an optimist like me. I see things in life and try to equate them to a lesson that can be learned. This analogy between volcanoes and stock charts is another valuable lesson.
A technical trader is a scientist of stocks and studies stock charts like a scientist would study a volcano to see when they will explode upward. We are looking at the same type of indicators that the scientists are looking for. Pressure is what causes a volcano to erupt. Pressure is also what causes a stock price to erupt. We can watch for the signs that pressure is building in a stock by watching the volume. We do not buy a stock until the volume is confirming a strong move. The scientists watch for magma to rise towards the surface and other indicators beneath the surface for hints of activity. We watch for rising trend lines and moving averages. We also watch for other indicators such as CMF, RSI, MACD, AC/DS and other various indicators. Just like the scientists, all these indicators when brought together for a specific reading can let the stock trader know in advance when a stock is about to explode.
Will Mount St. Helens erupt? There is a very strong likelihood that it will. Will the stock market erupt? There is a very strong likelihood it will also. Right now, the charts are indicating all is calm, but we have heard some tremors lately and the charts are indicating that we may be getting close. We still do not know exactly when but I can tell you it is coming. Some volcanoes become dormant for years and then explode; some become inactive and die, never erupting again. One thing we know for a fact about the stock market is it will always be active and every few years it will erupt.
Bulletin Watch List
GNLB opened down 70% on bad news, but the versatile day trader was able to make a quick profit of up to 20% on this stock today. Bulletin stocks TGA and TOPT had a great day on this oil price spike. TGA is already up 25% since listed. VWPT is another stock that if you check the comments on the bulletin, reached the resistance target of $3.00 today, a 45% gain since we listed the stock at $2.15. The service cannot be in every stock on the bulletin, I wish we were setup to do that because we would have much better results. But since the portfolio is set up to have a maximum of 20 positions, we cannot buy them all. I will not limit the bulletin to only 20 stocks because there are charts shaping up every day that need to be watched and added. Just because I am not buying for the Portfolio does not mean these stocks should be ignored. It is unfortunate we are not set up to buy every stock. If we did, that would mean a much smaller than a 5% position in each trade and it would not be worth trading. Watching each trade like a hawk would be a nightmare. The whole purpose of the bulletin is making these winners available to you each night. I hope you are taking advantage of the bulletin watch list because it is there to help you.
My Day Trading Secret Revealed
I have had some personal problems lately, and I have had to take some time away from my trading day at times. As a result, I have not been on my game. I am not making excuses, in the stock market, there are no excuses. I will admit that I have missed a few of these big runners recently, and I feel bad if you have waited for an alert from me. Like I have explained above, the bulletin will always have some movers on it and I hope you are taking advantage of them.
I would like to make up a little lost ground tonight by revealing one of my favorite trading strategies and trading tools. It is my gift to you for remaining loyal to this service. It is the 9 EMA, and it is my personal favorite trading tool. I use it religiously for my day trading. I have mentioned it before in the bulletin comments so you already know I use it. Pay close attention to the annotated charts, they are dedicated to the 9 EMA tonight. I hope this helps you and thank-you all again from the bottom of my heart for being here with us. You are what makes this service so great.
OTC BB Watch List
- TRLG A big move up today after a mention here last night.
Here are some recent IPO's with good looking charts. They will not be added to the Bulletin because the volume is too thin.
- LMRA
- LPL
- SRVY
- RNOW
- ECST
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