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Sunday, October 03, 2004
Market Recap
The markets started out with a bang on the first trading day of the 4th quarter on Friday. The Dow had a triple digit gain and closed up +112 points. It now sits just below the resistance level of 10200, and if it can get through that, the 200 SMA would act as next resistance. The 200 SMA is 10298 on the Dow tonight. The NASDAQ and S&P both had fantastic days as well, with gains of +45 and +17 points respectively. Both had well above average volume and closed on the highs of the day. This heavy volume to the upside is a good indication that institutions are entering the market just as we thought they would after the summer ended. Friday's parabolic move vaulted the S&P well above its 200 SMA and that puts this index in Bull mode. The NASDAQ and Dow both remain in between their respective 50 and 200 SMA lines and are still neutral mode for now. Resistance on these two indices are 1965 and 10300. If they can break above these levels, it should spark a pre-election rally and continue on into the holidays.
Don't get Kerry'ed away
Let's not get ahead of ourselves yet. This year has been tough with the market giving us many head fakes. It has broken out before but failed; it has broken down before but bounced back. Just when the charts say it is about to go one way, it goes other. The stock market this year has a strong resemblance to one of our presidential candidates. It has been completely lost at times, and cannot seem to figure out which direction it wants to go. It goes in one direction one day and completely reverses course the next. How can investors have confidence in a market that keeps flip flopping? Hopefully the market will stop avoiding the issues and realize that 1) high oil prices are here for awhile, and 2) geopolitical events cannot stop investors from prosperity.
When smart money is positioned in the market, the stock market tends to run up for months, even years. When dumboberries are in the market, the market goes nowhere. They have to be shaken out before any rally can be sustained. Let's not get “Kerry'ed” away, we know the market has a tough road ahead but if it can tackle the issues at hand and get above these 200 SMA lines with some real conviction, the buyers will support the market with a “vote” of confidence. With the right people in the market I am sure a new bull market can get underway and hopefully last for at least the next four years. After that we will have to see. It is very possible that one of our former presidents could be the next “first lady” - and that's no bull.
OTC BB Watch List
- TRLG
- SUMU
Here are some recent IPO's with good looking charts. They will not be added to the Bulletin because the volume is too thin.
- LMRA
- MRLX
- LPL
- SRVY
- RNOW
- ECST
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