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Thursday, September 30, 2004

Market Recap
 If you went golfing today, the only thing you may have missed were the fairways; you did not miss anything in the stock market. It was a slow day with the market going nowhere fast. The Dow was down -55 points, the NASDAQ finished up +2 points, and the S&P was flat. Speaking of a directionless market, there was no evidence of any direction since yesterday's commentary.

Oil & Confidence
 Consumer confidence slipped in the most recent polling. Despite Mr. Greenspan talking about how well the economy is doing and how it is “gaining traction”, it seems that the consumer does not quite agree. High oil prices, job worries, and rising interest rates are the key factors that consumers focus on when determining their overall sentiment.
It is tough to be positive about the economy when oil is $50 a barrel, gas prices are still continually rising, and winter is coming fast. The summer driving season is something everyone can adjust to if they feel gas prices are too high. However, most Americans cannot adjust to higher heating costs in the winter. You simply cannot decide not to heat your home. Turning back the thermostat a notch may help, but those high energy costs will still be reflected in the gas bill. 

 It seems the market may be ready to accept the fact that oil prices will not drop. There have been a lot of stocks beaten down lately and some buyers are coming to market looking for bargains. Whether or not those stocks are actual bargains is yet to be seen.  Retailers are coming out with decent numbers of late which is also a bit surprising considering the high oil costs. Paying more at the pump usually means less money to spend at Wal-Mart. This market action could be nothing more than a short term technical bounce. It is too early to predict, but I am seeing some nice chart set-ups in certain sectors of the market.

 Oil tankers, chemicals, energy, defense, and steel stocks a few sectors that are showing strength in this market. While the market moves sideways, we will be looking for stocks in these leading sectors. I have added one stock each from the chemical and steel sectors to the bulletin tonight. Keep in mind that these are normally slow sectors that do not provide much action. But in a market like this, slow and steady is about the best we can hope for on a consistent basis. 

Bulletin Comments
 I have been asked why I do not always follow the bulletin comments exactly as written. It is a valid question and it deserves an explanation. I do not like straying from the bulletin comments but sometimes if a trade does not look right, I will not pull the trigger. There are several factors I look at when debating on making a trade during the day. I follow the same advice we give our members - do not blindly buy stocks based on the bulletin buy points without first checking the volume, chart, and other indicators. Volume is only one piece of the puzzle. Level II, bid/ask spread, and several other indicators are used to decide whether or not to buy. When a stock hits a buy point, if it is a real breakout, there are literally only seconds to decide if it is a buy or not. If I hesitate, the stock will take off without me. True breakouts do not linger when a buy point is reached, if it does not take off right away, chances are it will not. The buy points in the bulletin are best estimates. We cannot predict ahead of time how a stock will act once it reaches the estimated buy point during the trading day.  
 Putting breakout buy points in the bulletin in this market is a difficult task. They are added to indicate where the breakout may occur, but they may not always translate into actual trades because of the current market conditions.

OTC BB Watch List
- EGSR

Here are some recent IPO's with good looking charts.  They will not be added to the Bulletin because the volume is too thin.   
- LMRA
- MRLX
- LPL
- SRVY
- RNOW
- ECST

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