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Sunday, September 26, 2004
Market Recap
Rising oil prices stopped the market from breaking out of its consolidation base last Wednesday. The charts looked great up till then but the market took a dive on Wednesday with some follow through selling on Thursday that damaged many charts. On Friday, the Dow was up +8 points to end the week, the NASDAQ lost -7 points, and the S&P was basically flat gaining a mere +2 points.
Looking Ahead
This coming week has little scheduled news in the way of earnings releases or economic data. I do not expect much market action other than the continued decaying charts and of course the occasional breakout stock that moves up no matter what the market does. Oil prices are rocketing back up towards $50 again. With oil prices that high, it is tough for the stock market to move higher. According to the Fed, the economy is getting stronger, but if you look at the signs, I am losing confidence that the Fed has any clue of what is really going on. Or perhaps they have a clear picture and we the public are not hearing the truth? Look at the companies that have guided lower already for the next quarter. There have been many companies that have already stated they will not make current earnings estimates and that does not bode well for the up coming quarter.
We must continue to be very cautious in our trading. The charts of the NASDAQ, Dow, and S&P are not looking good right now. I look for the NASDAQ to return to its 50 SMA (which is 1855 as of tonight) before we see any type of bounce. The S&P should retreat to its 50 SMA also (which is 1100 as of tonight). Once these retracements occur, there will most likely be a nice bounce but for how long is the question. The Dow is already below its 50 SMA and has some support at the 10,000 level.
Market Constraints
There are still many geopolitical constraints that I believe are holding the stock market down as well as high oil prices, broker down grades, and over zealous analyst estimates that companies are already warning they can not meet. The uncertainty of the election is another barrier for the markets to hurdle. Lets face it folks, when Cat Stevens is considered by the United States as a possible terrorist, we know we are living in a changed world. This is the pop singer that wrote the song “peace train” back in the 70's. He probably just donated to what he thought was a legitimate charitable organization. There are many organizations that claim to be charities that funnel money to terrorist organizations. I am speculating here but I just can not believe he had anything to do with supporting any terrorist organization.
A 4th major hurricane is hitting Florida. God bless all those in its path. Our Florida members are in our hearts and prayers. We wish you all God's speed.
OTC BB Watch List
- PWLX (mentioned here last Wednesday at .25 closed Thursday at .38 up over 50%)
- GASE (very strong close on high Friday. Should continue Monday)
- EZEN
- COPY
- TREN
Here are some recent IPO's with good looking charts. They will not be added to the Bulletin because the volume is too thin.
- LMRA
- MRLX
- LPL
- SRVY
- RNOW
- ECST
StockCharts Listing
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