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Tuesday, September 14, 2004
Good evening friends,
Market Recap
It was a lackluster day in the markets with light volume and a tight trading range for most of the day. With the exception of a slight pop in the Dow this morning after Dow component McDonalds announced an increase to their dividend, there was not much action in either direction. All three of the major averages finished virtually flat. The Dow finished up +3 points, the S&P finished up +2.5 points, and the NASDAQ closed up +5 points. The NASDAQ did manage to close near the HOD (high of day) with some increased volume towards the end of the day. A good sign no doubt.
The market continues to shrug off what would normally be negative news as oil was a non-factor again today even though it climbed back above $44 per barrel. Retail sales numbers released this morning were slightly below expectations, there was a profit warning from major retailer Office Depot, and an earnings miss from grocery giant Kroger. Outside of the individual stocks for these companies, these events seemed to have little effect on the markets today.
There is little to update tonight for the charts of the major indices as we wait for final confirmation from the NASDAQ with a close above its 200MA. I mentioned in yesterday's commentary that a close again above the 1900 level on the NASDAQ would be a good sign. Today's close was above 1900, and as a bonus, it did not dip below 1900 intraday. This is an indication that 1900 is now support and that a move higher is likely. Today's flat markets gave many stocks with recent run-ups a chance to rest and setup for their next move higher. Hopefully the market continues to improve on a daily basis so that we can get back to the big gains on long positions as we had in 2003.
Software maker Oracle announced earnings after the bell today. Oracle did manage to beat the analyst estimates by 1 cent and the stock has traded as high as $11.10 in after hours (It has since pulled back from those highs). I look forward to seeing how the entire software sector reacts to these earnings from Oracle.
Trading With Consistency – Part 1
Consistency is the key to a winning trading strategy. This was a topic covered previously. Time is another key element in this winning strategy. We have also discussed appropriate goal setting to enhance your overall trade strategy. We used a baseball analogy to illustrate consistency in trading. With the pennant race heating up as the baseball season is drawing to a close, another baseball analogy is a good topic.
Let's tie all these key points together; consistency, time, strategy. To recap from previous commentaries:
1) Consistency - Ty Cobb has the highest career batting average of any player, active or retired, but he did not achieve this overnight or even over the course of a few seasons. He hit with consistency throughout his career. He also had his share of strike outs, which tells us that even a winning portfolio will have strike outs.
2) Time - Time keeps on ticking into the future. We used this wisdom from Steve Miller about the importance of time. Every so often a new subscriber will immediate look for TWPD to double their portfolio, only to give up after a short time. They are not paying attention to the timeline of portfolio building, only paying attention to the here and now.
3) Strategy - This is point is often discussed. Planning to trade and trading that plan, is perhaps the best way to think about strategy.
Strategy starts with the method you choose for locating stocks. The same is true with a baseball team in spring training. The coaches are looking over the players and deciding where the strengths and weaknesses there are. In the same way coached do not draw names out of a hat and stick those people out on the field, investors should not simply be sticking stock symbols into our portfolios. We need to know which stocks are ready to excel and which ones still need some time.
The second part of Trading with Consistency will be continued in tomorrow's commentary.
OTC BB Watch List
ANTR – Up 7.5% today
WLSF – Up 40% since it was mentioned last Thursday
StockCharts Listing
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