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Monday, September 06, 2004
Good evening friends,
Market Recap
The market closed the week with a down day; the Dow was down -30 points, the NASDAQ dropped -28 points, and the S&P fell -5 points. The Dow ended just below its 200 SMA at the close, but the S&P managed to stay above its 200 SMA line.
Intel's latest earnings and forecast that was released on Thursday after the bell disappointed investors and the stock paid the price. INTC was down nearly 10% on Friday due to a sharply lower, revised forecast for the third quarter. Technology stocks took it on the chin as a result of this news and the entire chip sector fell in sympathy. Intel indicated they have an inventory build up and that will impact their numbers going forward. The three year chart of INTC in last week's commentary had an annotated bear flag. This bear flag was signaling in advance that bad news may be coming. I also annotated where support would be at $19.80. Friday's low was $19.85 (the chart is in the commentary tonight). Charts can often give these kinds of signals ahead of news.
Looking Ahead
The markets are holding up very well despite the Intel disappointment last week. I thought the Dow would fall a lot further than 30 points on Friday, because INTC is a Dow component. The fed released the job numbers on Friday morning before the bell and that saved the market from a total collapse. The numbers were good and that was enough to off set the INTC bombshell. If the job numbers would have disappointed, we may have had a black Friday on our hands. I am not sure the market could have withstood both the news from INTC and bad employment figures on the same day.
The Labor Day holiday is over and everyone will be back from their summer vacations. There are no more excuses for a lack of volume. Now is the time for people to start jumping back in the market. Hopefully the institutions start trading tomorrow morning. If so, volume should pick up immensely. The question is, are they ready to support the market? Is the market ready for them? The stage is set; let's see if institutional buying shows up. The charts of the NASDAQ and SOX are in need of serious repair and I am not convinced the smart money will start buying just yet, but with just two months until the election, the market should make a move soon. The market should be able to forecast the winner well in advance of November 2nd. With President Bush now ahead in the polls, the market may like that and buyers may start to come in. The chart indicates the market should go down from here, but if the market thinks the president will get re-elected, it may continue to move up.
OTC BB Watch List
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