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Thursday, September 02, 2004

Good evening friends,

Market Recap
 It was another big day for the markets as the Dow had a triple digit gain up +122 points, the NASDAQ gained +23 points, and the S&P managed to gain +12 points. Volume on all three of these indexes was below average. In a rally of this magnitude point wise, I would have expected much more volume. The Dow closed above its 200 SMA and that could be just enough to get some people back in the market. Ideally, I would like to see all three indexes above their 200 SMA and trading in sync before being bullish. So far, the S&P is getting close to its 200 SMA, but the NASDAQ is in far worse shape. It is not even above its 50 SMA yet. I doubt it gets there tomorrow after the INTC bombshell news after hours tonight.

Market Outlook
 Stocks rallied on rumors on the street that Bin Laden had been captured. There was no confirmation of the news but stocks kept flying high anyway. It was all a guessing game in my opinion. I think people just wanted to get into the market before the big weekend, but there is no logic trying to guess and gamble right before Intel's mid quarter report and the big job numbers tomorrow. The jobs numbers usually move the market so people must think they will be good and are positioning themselves ahead of time. This gamble could turn out to be a very big mistake. After the bell, Intel guided much lower than expected and traded below $20.00 in after hours. This bellwether could move the NASDAQ down hard tomorrow and take all chip stocks with it. If the job numbers disappoint, this market will see a huge down day right before the long weekend. There will be many people who entered the market in this low volume rally that will be in a lot of pain this weekend if the job numbers are disappointing. I have a feeling there volume will be much higher than we have seen lately in tomorrow's trading, but this volume will be probably be to the downside. The only chance for the NASDAQ will be positive jobs numbers. If the number is below expectations, the recent rally will come to an abrupt halt. Many charts may break down tomorrow; it should be a very interesting day in deed. 

Make Your Bets
 Tonight wraps up the republican convention. Make a note of the close of each index tonight and take a look at it on November 1st. If the market is higher on November 1st than it is today, President Bush will be re-elected. If it is lower, the democratic nominee will win. This is a statistic I read about a few weeks ago and it has been accurate more than 90% of the time. 

 No sense in showing any charts tonight as any charts I show tonight will break down tomorrow if there is a down draft in the market. I am not compelled to put any new stocks on our Bulletin tonight either because I think they will open lower tomorrow. Let's watch the market action closely and take the long weekend to find some small caps that may be ready to move. Keep in mind that the Russell small cap index is also below its 200 SMA and has been rising on lower than average volume, just like the other indexes. This could indicate that some of these small caps on the rise are just trying to sucker us in. Have a great weekend everyone.   

OTC BB Watch List
- none

*REMINDER, the market will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. There will be no bulletin on Sunday evening. Next bulletin will be on Monday Sep 6th. 

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