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Thursday, August 26, 2004
Good evening friends,
Market Recap
Not much to report tonight with the markets trading flat most of the day with limited range. The Dow was down -8 points, NASDAQ down -7, and the S&P did not move at all. Because the markets had little or no movement today, so was the same for many stocks. When this happens, there is little to update in our stock comments area of the bulletin so there are not many updates tonight. There are no new stocks to add to our list tonight either as I am waiting on a market move happening soon. Tomorrow should be another mild day of trading with minimal volume to end this slow week. Next week the volume should pick up, and if not, the following week after Labor Day should see volume return.
Caution Ahead
Oil prices came down from their highs this week and the stock market reacted with some light volume buying. This light volume will not lend any confirmation to the recent rally. It is nice to see buyers slowly coming back to the markets but it really does not do anything for us without the heavy volume confirmation that is needed to make the rally grow some legs. There are many charts still in need of repair.
Caution is still advised. If we jump in now thinking this is the big rally we want to believe will come; we run the grave risk that it is not. Remember, the motto of the technical trader is not “buy low, sell high”, it is “buy high, sell higher”. We will wait for the markets to show signs of confirmation that we will have a continued rally. Stocks have risen off of their recent lows, but that does not mean that they will not return to test those lows again. I would rather continue to sit on cash and prepare myself for buying when the markets confirm it is time to buy.
The Republican convention is next week. I think once it is over we will see some volume start to hit the market. Also Labor Day is coming, the traditional holiday where fund managers come out of the wood work and start buying market leading stocks to beef up there portfolio's for that end of year window dressing. Vacationers are also coming back and will likely begin to test the market waters after a long dull summer of flat to down trading.
Cautionary optimism is about all I can recommend right now. Do not get too excited in this minor rally we have had the last week or two until you see the professionals moving back into stocks in full strength. For now, it is best to keep a cautious approach, stick with the charts, preserve your capital, and if you go long, buy only the leading stocks with the best looking charts. If you stick to this approach, you will be ready with cash to hop on the bull as it takes off on its next big run.
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