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Thursday, June 24, 2004
Good evening friends,
Market Recap
There was no follow through from big rally in the last 90 minutes of yesterday's trading. A strong market close like we had yesterday should have brought in buyers today, but it did not happen. The Dow traded within a tight 50 point range and closed down -35 points. The NASDAQ's trading range was 20 points and closed down -5. There is not much to update tonight on the Bulletin. For the most part, today's market action left most stocks in a holding pattern.
Ten Years of NASDAQ Volume
I have a chart of the NASDAQ tonight dating back ten years. The bar coming from the left is the volume at a particular price level over that time frame. As you can see, more shares have been traded on the NASDAQ in this area in the last ten years than any other time in the period. This is what is causing the market to be undecided in my opinion. The shares traded are also equally split between up and down volume, another sign of indecision.
The Big Day, June 30th
In my opinion, we are sitting at a breaking point, and a big market move will happen soon. I strongly believe the move will be up, but we will need to wait for the fed to move on June 30th before the market can move up strongly. The uncertainty of the fed has been a drag on this market for a long time. Let's hope Mr. Greenspook can say something we can all understand (and be decisive when saying it) so this Bull can get under way again.
Another big event on June 30th is the transfer of power in Iraq. Radicals are expected to be disruptive, possibly planning some terrorist acts to coincide with or shortly thereafter this transfer of power.
A rule of thumb is that the market moves up to six months in advance of market moving news. This means that anything we already know is priced in and anything we do not know may also be getting priced in, even before we hear about it. This is also where the saying “buy the rumor sell the news” comes from. We have a lot to think about this summer but all we can do at this point is follow the trend when the trend starts. Right now, we are still trendless and playing the waiting game.
As always, thank-you for your support past, present and future! Have a great night everyone; we will see you all Sunday evening.
OTC BB Watch List
- CCLH: The run continues, up 23% since listed 2 days ago and today had 4X ave volume
AMEX Watch List
I am not a fan of stocks trading on the AMEX but I am finding some AMEX stock charts that are looking good. I will not list them all on the Bulletin, but here are a few AMEX stocks that look very strong and may move soon:
- CKR
- GPK
- SRV
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