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Sunday, June 06, 2004
Good evening friends,
Market Recap
Lately the markets have been acting very strangely. Great economic numbers were released on Friday morning and INTC's mid quarter update was very upbeat on Thursday after the bell, yet the market could not put together a meaningful rally at all. After racing up in the first 15 minutes of trading on Friday, it consolidated, surged to the HOD around 12:30, and then sold off. In a pre-market alert I mentioned that sellers may come in before the close and that's what happened, nobody wanted to hold their stocks over the weekend.
The markets finished up but not as much as it should have considering the excellent jobs report before the open. My guess is that most traders seem to be a little gun-shy with the uncertainty over interest rates, the price of oil, terrorism threats, the presidential election, and the situation in China. There is far too much uncertainty to push stocks up enough to achieve a sustainable move higher. All these factors and the uncertainty within are slowing the markets down. Volume is not there and the summer season is not helping the volume numbers at all (Volume is usually seasonally weaker in the summer months).
Trading for Smaller Gains
We have continued to focus on preservation of capital and risk management in our trading. We have been trading a lot because in a market like this, our option is to (a) either go all cash and wait it out, or (b) trade aggressively for smaller gains. These small gains add up over time and that is what we are striving for rather than stand pat with our cash. Position trading has clearly been much more rewarding than the buy and hold approach in 2004. As you can see from our performance in 2004, while the NASDAQ is flat, we are up 25% on the year.
You Are The Miracle
Our member stats indicate that we often have members who join, only to leave within a month or two. I think these people are looking for a miracle and leave when they do not find it right away. What they have failed to understand is that they are the miracle.
The movie “Bruce Almighty” is a comedy, but there is a very poignant message. Everyone today is looking for the easy way out. Everyone wants things to happen now, not later. They want to see results the second they ask for them, instant gratification. When things do not go as planned, they end up playing the blame game. In our case, we hear that “it is TWPD's fault I lost money”.
When you signed up for TWPD, I am hoping that you did not do so expecting to see your portfolio double by the end of the week I hope that you did not expect that you would learn everything there is to know about technical analysis in a matter of days. Remember, time is the lifeblood of everything, and we cannot succeed in life overnight. Success is the result of years and years of practice and learning.
The people who really succeed may not be good at everything, but excel at “what they do”. Most of us have had other jobs before stock trading: doctors, lawyers, construction workers, military, sales, or even a part-time pizza driver (I did two of the above). It makes no difference what you did before you started to trade stocks. You can excel as a stock trader no matter what you did before. I was not always a stock trader, but it was something that I wanted to do for a living. I had the attitude that I was going to be a success and I was devoted to taking the time it would take to get there. I wanted to be the best I could be because I saw the enormous wealth building potential.
You can make your living trading stocks if you set your mind to it. Perseverance is the only way you will learn this business well enough to call yourself a professional. You can not be a professional in one month at TWPD, but over time I am confident you can learn enough with us at TWPD that you can be.
If you want to succeed in the stock market it will take time. You cannot have the expectation that you will turn things around overnight. It took me years to learn this business and to develop my own trading style and abilities. If you stick with us and learn something new every day, you will succeed. If you devote yourself to learning and to building your skills you will become a successful trader.
Set some goals and stick with them, do not give up and do not ever stop trying. There is an old saying “If you don't know where you're going, you may end up somewhere else”. You must have a plan and stick to it and whatever you do, do not let the dream-stealer steal your dreams. For example, bashers on message boards are dream-stealers. They think everything is a scam. If you listen to them, they will steal your dreams. Even Henry Ford was confronted by dream-stealers when he was introducing his invention called the “automobile”. Where would we be if Mr. Ford listened to them?
We are not the miracle you are looking for, but we can help you become the miracle. Learn this profession if not for yourself but for your family. Do it for them, I did it for mine.
As always, thank-you for your support past, present and future! Have a great night everyone; we will see you all tomorrow evening.
OTC BB Watch List
- SEVI
- AANI
By the Numbers :
One slice of Pizza at God Fathers costs more than a day's worth of TWPD service. Skip the pie and look at our trade portfolio to see why.
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