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Sunday, May 23, 2004

Good evening friends,

Market Recap
 Friday's option expirations trading was not as volatile as expected. The markets put us to sleep again as it has for the last few weeks. No volume tends to cause some pretty boring trading days. Friday's volume was weak as it has been in all the up days lately. The S&P is showing some resilience by managing to stay above its 200 SMA. The Dow and NASDAQ however are below this key average. 

 The Dow made an attempt to cross above its 200 SMA but there was too much resistance and it fell back down by the end of the day. The market has been trading sideways for the last 2 weeks or so after selling off. Normally a market that trades sideways in an attempt to work off an oversold condition is bearish. Even though the market remains over sold, it is still possible that another leg down could come as it falls out of this lower base is has been trying to form. 

Bear Scans
 More and more stocks are showing up on my bear scans and this is a very negative situation. There was a time eight months ago when these bear scans produced less then ten stocks a night, now I have one that has over 200 stocks in it each night and that number is climbing. If the Bull is to return, the number of stocks on these bear scans must decrease rapidly or we will be in for an extended waiting period before we can take any long positions. 

A Chart a Day Keeps Your Losses Away
 “An apple a day keeps the doctor away” Well for us a chart a day keeps your losses away. 

 Whether you are in the very earliest stages of learning Technical Analysis or a seasoned pro, I recommend setting aside a few minutes each trading day to pull up and study a chart (preferably, a stock you have found on your own). Ask yourself what the chart is telling you and what are the indicators predicting the stock will do. Is it a buy or a sell? Print a copy of the chart, for future reference and use it to write notes on. You can refer back to this copy several trading sessions later. See if you were able to discern from the chart the true direction of the stock. 

 I have talked about the “trader's desktop” on several occasions. A trade log is a must to record why you are making a buy/sell decision. This should go on your desk top for sure.  Now add the charts you are studying to the desk top and use it to critique your trades.  Call it your lesson plan for the week. Learn the chart and you will understand how to make money no matter which direction the market is heading.

Time to get ‘Stoch'ed (The Stochastic Oscillator)
 We will continue our series tonight on indicators with the stochastic oscillator. If you are scanning for stocks, you are probably using several additional indicators on your own. 

 The Stochastic Oscillator is an indicator that is similar to the RSI (relative strength).  Stochastics is an improved version of the relative strength indicator. It is set to show oversold and overbought areas more rapidly than the RSI You may have heard about slow stochs and fast stochs. Both indicators are slightly different from each other, given the time frame and relative movement they are set to measure.

 Stochastics actually measure the ‘strength' of the relative strength indicator. If the RSI hits a new low, it will show as a 0 on stochs. If RSI hits a new high, then it will show up as 100 on stochs. Beyond that, it shows a percentage over its highs or below its lows. If you see a reading of .40, then you know that the stock in question is 40% above the lowest level it has hit during the time frame you are measuring.

 So how do we use it? As always, we blend this indicator into the overall mix since one indicator does not make the chart. Since the stochs get their information from the RSI, we know it is set to track the relative strength in a stock. It helps accurately track the relative strength of a stock, and show us when the stock is rising off of a new low. This can be used in conjunction with other indicators to identify a stock that is set to rise off a low point and move higher. It can be helpful to identify stocks that are set to bounce off of support levels. We have seen stocks declining on relatively light volume, only to hit a certain level and then reverse and climb. With Stochs, we can help to better track those movements than we can with the RSI.

Thought of the Day 
1 Gallon of gas a day costs more the TWPD service.  Walk a block to trade a stock :o)

Joke of the Week
The real definition of a Stock Split: When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.  

As always, thank-you for your support past, present and future! Have a great night everyone; we will see you all Tomorrow evening. 

OTC BB Watch List
- SPHC
- EMED
- VROT







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