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Wednesday, April 21, 2004

Market Recap
The market is beyond prediction at this point. We should have had an ugly gap down this morning based on yesterday's close, yet the futures were up and the NASDAQ closed 15 points higher. The market is irrational and it is not following what the charts are indicating. Good earnings from EBAY and QCOM after the bell just might send us up again, although the chart of the NASDAQ says we should be going down. 

As a result of these good earnings, we may be stopped out of our new short positions tomorrow (with our tight stops). This is why I have suggested not to trade at all. Trying to trade this market other than day trading is doing nothing more than making our brokers money. Brokers are sucking up our commission fees while we get whipsawed in the market.  

Cash is King
Just like breakouts on the long side have not been working, breakdowns on the short side (sell stop orders) have not been working either. Instead of breakouts, it is better to buy dips when buying long positions in this market. Same holds true on the short side, it is better to short with limit orders into strength on low volume. However, in my opinion, the best option is not trading at all at this point and being 100% cash. The only reason I am trading is because I was caught with my pants down on this sell off, and I am trying to hedge my longs with new short positions.  

Long Portfolio Update
You may be wondering why we have not purchased any positions for the new long term portfolio. That portfolio is ready to go, but if the stocks are not ready to go, I will not buy for the long portfolio yet. I am looking for stocks that I feel have a potential to go up 1000% over 1-3 years. 

These stocks are hard to find, and I want only the hidden gems to be on our long portfolio. This will be our “gold” portfolio, and we want nothing but gold in it. I have a couple for stocks in mind but I need to do more research before I can be sure they are what we are looking for. I am considering NAVR and UPCS but research is still being conducted on these stocks before I make a decision.  

Member Suggestions for Long Positions
If anyone thinks they have a company worthy of this golden portfolio, please email me with the ticker and why you think we should add it. I am looking for 10 stocks to buy and hold for 1-3 years for 1000%. We will be buying these stocks over a period of time, and hopefully we will have 10 positions before the end of this year.

What's for lunch?
I am sure we have all heard statements like, “the market will chew you up and spit you out”, or “the market eats amateur investors for lunch”. Both of those statements are true.  The stock market is not a place for people to play - it is very hard work. You have to be on your toes at all times or else your portfolio will be someone else's lunch, and you get stuck with the tab.

While the market is eating up amateur investors daily, it also digests news. Economic news effects the markets in many ways and the market will move based on sentiment.  That sentiment is generated by the various economic indicators that we always hear about.

Here is the tough part: news that everyone thinks should give the market or a specific stock a nudge in a particular direction, ends up with the exact opposite effect. The market had an adverse reaction to news that it has digested many times before, with a positive reaction. It could have been that the market has simply had its fill of that particular kind of news. Or, there could be issues working below the surface.

It can be very hard to predict when good news is going to be taken badly, or when bad news will get no reaction at all. I have been seeing some posts lately like “how did we miss that one?” 

There was a particular stock that made a very impressive gain the other day, but it had one of the ugliest charts I have seen. News came out and the stock reacted very positively. However, if a chart is broken when it gaps up on news, often the stock will fall back down after the mania is over with inexperienced newbies left holding the bag. The stock price falls back down because the chart was not healthy in the first place and there is no support beneath it to hold up the price. 

We will not be able to find these erratic stocks with much luck on any given day. We will stick with healthy charts and digest what I know is tried and true. We will have the occasional and unexpected bad reaction, but in the long term I am confident we will eat up profits that others leave on the table.

OTC BB Watch List
- none tonight

As always, thank-you for your support past, present and future! Have a great night everyone; we will see you all tomorrow evening. 
   







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