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Monday, March 29, 2004
Good evening friends,
Market Recap
The markets were on a roll again with the Dow up 116 points and the NASDAQ up 32 points. The NASDAQ closed just below the high of the day of 1996; the NASDAQ is now getting into an area where there is plenty of resistance. I have a fresh chart tonight of the NASDAQ and as you will see, today's rally was again on below average volume so it is suspect for sure.
Volume, Volume, and Volume
When a stock or an index runs up against resistance, it will need volume to break through the resistance. So far from what I see; there is not enough volume for the NASDAQ to push through this wall. It should be turning back again soon. I am still undecided as to which way we are headed. As I have said before, we are in a trading range between the 50 SMA and the 200 SMA, and until this is resolved we cannot commit either way.
Tug-Of-War
It is no coincidence that the numbers of stocks on our short and long watch lists are almost even, this will happen in a market with no direction. It is because we do not know which way to go, so we have to watch both the long and short side equally to be ready for a break either way up or down. When we were in a raging bull market last year between May and December, we had upwards of 50 stocks on our long watch list and none on our short list. If the market turns down on us and the NASDAQ goes below the 200 SMA, our list of shorts will grow quickly and our long list will dwindle down to almost nothing.
To me, it makes no difference which direction the market goes, we will make money on either side. I just wish it would commit one way or the other so we can get back to business. I would prefer a bull market (going up) only because I know most of our subscribers do not short stocks. The only way to make money in that case is if the bull runs again. I think we will go up but I just can not tell you when just yet. We will need more time for a better reading.
With the NASDAQ near resistance levels again, Cash is king. For aggressive traders, our short list has some good limit orders to short into rallies. Be sure to keep tight stops in place. We are trying to stay with losses equaling no more than 2% on short trades and we will apply this rule with long trades as well (although not as strict). Some longs need more room to move, but there is no excuse to let a short get away from you for more than 2-5% in this market.
** One of last night's OTC BB plays (GDLS) was up 184% today**. That's right, it is no miss print. I do not know why it is up so much, but what a move. Also from last night's Bulletin are SPHC up 15% and GZFX up 8%.
Some OTC bb stocks for your watch list include SPHC (from last night but it can move more), PLKC, EYDY, GZFX, and IACH.
As always, thank-you for your support past, present and future! Have a great night everyone; we will see you all tomorrow evening.
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