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Thursday, March 11, 2004
Good evening friends,
Congratulations to everyone who has learned that you don't always have to be in the market every minute of the day. All the major indices continue to fall, and all the while we are sitting patiently safely guarding our cash and not bothered at all by this downward spiral.
For those of you who have not been with us long, this is the 3rd time since our service started 10 months ago that we have recommended going to a mostly cash position. Each time this has occurred, we have been out of the market before the market turn began. I'm currently 65% cash and admittedly, even that is not enough. We should be 80-100% cash but unfortunately unlike the two previous times we went to cash, I am stuck in a few losing trades that I still need to close. It will take some time for me to work myself out of those trades with a small loss.
I have charts of 4 major indices tonight, and you better be sitting down when you look at these. The picture isn't pretty but it never is near the bottom. Remember: when the market seems to be the worst, the time to buy is near. When that time comes, we will have plenty of cash available to capitalize on the opportunity.
Still in the game
There are times when it does pay to sit on cash patiently. We are experiencing one of those times now. Even though we are in cash, we are far from out of the game. It's like a football game…
Think of It Like a Football Game
- There are people who never invest. They have no money in the stock market and never will. They don't understand football (the markets) so they choose not to understand.
- You have the people in the stands that probably have a few mutual funds, or bonds. They often watch the action on the field and dream of what it would be like to be out there playing (trading). They will live vicariously by reading news about how things went or listen to analysts and hang on their every word.
- Then there are the people closer to the field, they are on the sidelines. They will occasionally get in the game, when they see the need to make a play. They too will watch the players on the field and wish they were out there playing. You might even see them practicing (paper trading) on the sidelines for the eventual big play they hope to make.
- Finally, you've got the first team, the ones on the field, in the game (market professionals).
If you've ever watched a football game, even for 5 minutes, you've probably seen that it's not 100% action all the time. The players will huddle up and discuss the next play; we are in a huddle right now. We're still on the field and we can get started at any moment, but for the time being, we are patiently going over the game plan and waiting to see what play is going to work best. We have to guess what our opponent (the market) is going to do next before we can call a play. We have the advantage because we have their playbook (the charts) and we have an inside track on what we think they are going to do next by reading the charts so we can defend ourselves against them.
In a football game, there are often setbacks. A team may fumble the ball, or get tackled for a loss (get caught in stocks that gap down). But a winning team always gets back up, thinks about the next play and then executes it. Their drive continues and they eventually score. They don't quit because they have been sacked. They learn from there mistakes and take measures to try and not have it happen again.
Once again, it's all about consistency, the team that has the ability to consistently move the ball down the field and score (winning trade) will eventually win the game. Sure, it's nice to have the occasional 100 yard run (100% gain) for a score, or the Hail Mary pass that is caught (lucky find) but, how often can you execute on plays like that?
A consistent offense that can move down the field play after play making 10 yard gains (10% gains on trades) is going to win the big games and have a winning record. Consistency is the name of the game, and a part of that is always staying on the field in the game and planning your next play. We are in a slower period in the stock market right now (the tough part of the schedule). We have had some easy times the past 9 months and now we are playing a tough team. We will eventually play easy teams in the future but we need to get past this tough team right now.
The Game Plan
We are holding our own for now and when we play the tough market we have to be defensive and hold our cash. Let's stay in the huddle and study the charts, learn all we can about our opponent and be ready for the next play when the time comes.
With today's break of another support level, there are no stocks to be added to our list. If you are cash heavy, may I suggest taking tomorrow off and enjoy your day. The market will be here Monday.
As always, thank-you for your support past, present and future! Have a great night everyone; we'll see you all Sunday evening.
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