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Sunday, March 07, 2004
Good evening friends,
Market Outlook
I have good news tonight folks. The S&P 500 made a new 52 week high and pierced the 1160 level on Friday. This index wants to breakout, so look for a close above this level soon. Small cap stocks are also doing well and continue to forge ahead while the NASDAQ is the laggard.
People seem to have forgotten about how well the small caps have done over the last 52 weeks. While the NASDAQ has had a decent run over this same time frame, the small caps have far exceeded the NASDAQ performance and that is evident by the Russell small cap index (see chart). Since the start of our service almost 10 months ago, the Russell small cap index is up 50% while the NASDAQ is up 25% over the same time period.
New Highs vs. New Lows
The true picture of the markets health regardless of what we see in the major indices is the advance decline line. The number of new highs continues to pummel the number of new lows every day and it's been this way for the last 9 months. So while the NASDAQ is trying to make us believe the market is flat, the bull market rages on behind the scenes.
Favorites
I've brought back the favorite chart feature in the Bulletin tonight. This is because many charts are starting to shape up again and with the Russell small cap index on the verge of breaking out to the upside we will need to begin to take more long positions again soon. The favorite charts list are those stocks that I plan to buy first when I begin buying again. Most likely this buying will take place sometime this week. I have updated the shorts listed in the Bulletin, and I will continue to do so once a week for the benefit of those who are interested in shorting. I may short a few stocks here and there, but I will mainly focus on long positions since it is very clear we are in a resting period within a bull market.
As I've said before, gains will be minimal when you short in this market but when the market is flat, you can make good money playing the channels both short and long. It's been about 7 weeks since the market has had a real good week. I'm expecting this streak to end soon, and I look forward to a good market to trade in this upcoming week.
Buying and Selling 101
Just this past week we went back to the basics, with the commentary on Bulletin 101. I'd like to stick with the basics again tonight and talk about buying & selling 101. Hopefully, this will give everyone a better understanding of what the Alerts are there for and how you can help yourself by combining the Bulletin, your own due diligence(DD), and the Alerts to make a purchase decision.
This is actually a very timely topic as well. Martha Stewart was found guilty last week. When people trade based on insider information, they get caught and punished. Here at TradeWithPizzaDriver, we remain legal and we hold on to our integrity by keeping everything above the table. The reason that every member is given the Bulletin days in advance of any buying is specifically to afford everyone the same opportunity to buy.
That is also why I choose not to day trade within the TradeWithPizzaDriver service. When I buy a stock for the purpose of this service I plan to hold it for a number of days or weeks. Although some e-mail I've received has suggested otherwise, I am not buying in advance of anyone because these stocks are available on the Bulletin prior to my Alerts.
When an Alert is issued what does that mean? It means several things. One, I am simply notifying members that I have made a purchase for the official TradeWithPizzaDriver Trade Record. It also means that I feel certain conditions have been met to warrant buying the stock.
Should you rush out and purchase simply because I have sent an Alert? No, not necessarily. You may have chosen to purchase well in advance of any Alert I send. You might decide that the stock fundamentals or TA does not meet with your own personal criteria for buying. You may choose to pass on the stock altogether and put money into your own pick. The Alert is simply a way to communicate with all members that a stock has met all the criteria that I look for in my own purchases. It is every individual's choice when and if they decide to buy a stock.
The same holds true for selling. Many times when a sell Alert is sent, my statement is that I want to raise cash or take a small profit. In a number of cases the chart remains strong. Countless members have held stocks past when I have decided to sell, and have made significant profits in doing so. Once again, it is the ultimate decision of each individual trader on when to sell.
The service is called Trade WITH Pizza Driver and I am well aware that people trade the Alerts I send. I am not saying not to trade the Alerts; I'm saying you are responsible for choosing to trade the Alerts and whether you do or not is your business.
You may have also noticed recent Alerts were just informational Alerts. I choose to do this to keep people up to date on particular stocks or things that I see going on in the market. The Alerts are being sent because the information is relevant to the market and our trading practices.
By using the nightly Bulletin and your own analysis of the stocks listed, you can make your own buy decisions well in advance of any buying that I might choose to do. The service's purpose is to provide the list of stocks to all members, rather than have to attempt to locate them on their own. The Bulletin should be used as a tool to start preparing before the start of the next trading day.
The TradeWithPizzaDriver Alerts are for the sole purpose of maintaining the integrity of the service. These Alerts record the day and time I buy a stock for the official TradeWithPizzaDriver Trade Record. We could just say we are buying a stock at the prices listed in the Bulletin like other services do but that would not be realistic and is subject to scrutiny.
The TradeWithPizzaDriver Alert can not be disputed when it comes to validity of trades in the Trade Record. We will go head-to-head with any other service when it comes to performance. You can also review Alerts back 6 months ago to see what the price of the stock was on the day and time of the Alert. The Alert system validates our Trade Record performance for all to review whenever they wish. Also, by providing a list of watch list stocks on the Bulletin well in advance of any Alerts sent keeps us in compliance with the Security and Exchange Commission. I bring this up tonight only because of some e-mail I have received and hope this clarifies our position once and for all. There is absolutely no foul play at TradeWithPizzaDriver.
Some OTC BB stocks for your watch list include FSRCE, CGIH (has rocketed since the first time mentioned here), CTTV, MDTV, and VSNI
As always, thank-you for your support past, present and future! Have a great night everyone; we'll see you all Monday evening.
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