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Thursday, February 26, 2004
Good evening friends,
Market Recap
The NASDAQ saw a little green today on less then average volume. When the NASDAQ was around 2000 a few days ago, I mentioned I expected a weak bounce would occur. Well, the NASDAQ bounced as predicted, and as predicted, it was not a powerful. There is an updated chart of the NASDAQ tonight to show you where I believe it will head and when we should be ready to take our short positions. Other than that, there isn't much other news to speak of in the dreaded February market. As I mentioned in late January, this February would be a rough month and judging from some emails I have received, many of you are experiencing just how rough it can be.
Using Limit Orders
Knowing that we have been in a flat market, I've tried to provide some trading ranges to buy some stocks at for trading only (not for holding in this market). Some of these limit orders have been very accurate and I hope you are taking advantage of them. Limit orders are the only way to trade right now. I mentioned last week that we would need to change our style of trading to most effectively trade in this market. Breakouts are not working so we have switched our focus to limit orders at support areas for now. This is not my favorite trading method, but it is the only method working at the moment, besides trading the OTC BB's (look at some of the recent returns below). We must remain flexible and able to change styles in different type markets so we can adapt as market conditions change.
Going Full Time
Even in this tough month of February, some long time members who have witnessed TWPD results first hand have been able to shake this off. I would like to share an email with you from just such a subscriber regarding last night's commentary. This subscriber is firing his boss and will be trading full time:
“I read today's Bulletin about people quitting their jobs to trade full time because of Pizza Driver. I am one of them and will be quitting July 1st to do it also and can't wait!!! The ONLY REASON is PIZZA DRIVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”. Congratulations to this person and thank-you for the nice e-mail.
Don't Get Trampled
I try telling everyone not to be a part of the herd. If you walk with the herd, you're going to get trampled along the way. The herd is much more easily controlled (manipulated) than someone out making their own path. The market professionals shepherd the herd along and use any opportunity they can to direct the herd to where they want the stock price to go. I strive to give everyone the market direction in a stock before the herd enters a stock.
The Matrix
Lawrence Fishburn said it best in ‘The Matrix': “…there's a difference between knowing the path and walking the path.” The herd may think they know the path but they will have trouble finding it. They are easily manipulated and will walk where they are led. The talking heads on TV know this and they are often the wolf in sheep's clothing, standing in the middle of the pack and leading the cheering and screaming. I'm sure you've heard them before. They will tell you that there's no limit to this stock… “It's a rocket ship and you can still buy a ticket”. These wolves manipulate the sheep and help them to walk the path that they want the sheep to walk. Sheep are there to be fleeced, and the wolves are simply directing them to the shearing barn.
Contrarian's View
There is a very interesting “contrarian's view” of the market and how to spot an opportunity. When the market is full of exuberance and everyone is dancing in the streets, it can often be a good time to turn bearish. On the other hand, when everyone screams that the sky is falling and that there's just no hope with all the blood in the street, it's often a good time to turn bullish. This is because it's the herd that's doing all the talking and they have been driven to think this way because of the media (the talking heads). They have been trained to listen to the wolves and to follow the will of the herd. There is safety in numbers. Now, that might be true if you're walking through a bad part of town at night, but the market tends to disappoint the majority most of the time. We do need “numbers” in the form of volume to move a stock. But, those numbers only come in when the herd has been directed to move in only after the wolves (smart money) have taken their position. So, do not react with the herd and react to them instead. Let the charts be your guide rather than the talking heads on BSNBC.
Last night's OTC BB stocks ZKID and GUSH made nice moves today, up 19% and 10% respectively. DLGI has been mentioned a few times here and it was up 20% today. NGMC, an OTC BB stock from Monday's commentary was up a whopping 56% today alone. You could almost live off these bb plays during this flat market period. Some other OTC bb stocks for your watch list are IPVO, ASCT, CTTV, WITM, and SRAM.
As always, thank-you for your support past, present and future! Have a great night everyone; we'll see you all Sunday evening.
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