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Monday, February 23, 2004
Good evening friends,
Market Overview
The blood bath continues as the NASDAQ reached our target of 2000 made last week (see COMPQ chart 16feb2004). The NASDAQ even went a half a point below 2000 to an intraday low of 1999.59 before bouncing back. The first Alert this morning was “never to trust the futures market as an indication where the market is really headed”. We saw futures way up again today, but like Friday, the market closed lower. I expect a bounce soon but the bounce may weak, so be ready to short some stocks into any rally we may get. Most of the shorts from last night's short sheet were down today, but I will wait to short them at the limit prices indicated in the Bulletin.
Returns on Shorting
One point I'd like to make about shorting is that we know we can't make 100% like we did with some of our past long trades. When shorting, we have to assume the best return we may get is about 10% before the price bounces back up (in flat markets). 10% of a 5% portfolio position is only a gain of .05% to your bottom line, thus making the risk reward very high. The only way you can make serious money shorting is in a bear market when everything is dropping out of the sky daily. We are not in a bear market yet, so our short position gains will be minimal. You'll have to decide if the risk is worth the potential gains.
Although there was a lot of red on the screens today, 4 out of the 5 OTC BB plays in last night's commentary were green today. Two of them were big gainers, INIV was up 10% and LAMP was up a whopping 42% today. It pays to watch this list each night.
Beyond the Bulletin
I want to follow up on the Commentary from Sunday night to address an issue that I've seen pop up recently. I've received a few disconcerting emails from some new members who decided the service was not for them after using it for only a few weeks. Those of you who have been with us for many months know our trading system, and know that it works. We've hit a period of uncertainty in the market, and it's making life tough on all traders, not just us here at TWPD. I feel we are still in a very strong position, preserving capital and looking for pullbacks and the few breakouts that the market has to offer.
The emails have centered on our trading style and particularly on timing. It's been stated that I'm trading in advance of the Alerts and using members to drive up my own share price. I can state in no clearer terms, “This is NOT the case”. This is specifically why I do not offer day trades as Alerts. We have no where near the buying power to influence a stock. If every single member bought $10,000 at the time I released an Alert, then you might see an impact on some of the stocks we're trading. Since the average share price that we've been trading lately has been increasing, AND since we should all be following either a 5% or 10% maximum guideline, that would mean each of us having portfolios in excess of $5 million. I myself don't have a portfolio worth that much! So for anyone to accuse the service of artificially inflating market prices is utterly ridiculous. Another example is the Alerts last week; most of these stocks failed the breakouts and fell back, so this should prove we cannot move a stock price by ourselves.
As well, subscribers have access to the Bulletin which contains the stocks I am watching days in advance of any buying. Since we just touched on TA vs. Fundamental Analysis, I would like to touch on this again. You may go through the list of Bulletin stocks and look at any fundamental analysis or run your own TA on any of the stocks in the Bulletin. This affords you the opportunity to gain your own insight into all the stocks we are considering, and enter a position in the stock regardless of an Alert.
For example, I mentioned last week that SPAB was looking absolutely perfect, but did not yet have the volume for me to buy. I also responded to a message board post asking if anyone interested in taking a smaller position should do so. My unequivocal answer was “YES, Buy now!” The stock went from 3.25 to 3.80 the same day without me issuing an Alert. Why? Because other smart money was also watching it for a breakout.
Every member has the ability to look into the stocks as deep as they desire, and to make their own buy/sell decisions well in advance of any Alert I may issue. I will only issue an Alert when there is sufficient volume to enable me to take a position. This does not mean that a stock is not a perfect buy candidate well in advance of an Alert being issued.
The Bulletin is published well in advance of any buying to give subscribers the opportunity to study each stock on their own. The service has always been this way because I don't want to leave anyone guessing or in the dark on what we might be doing next. I am as open as I can possibly be with every aspect of the service. I hope this addresses any concerns that any subscriber may have concerning the trading style and timing of the buy decisions. I also hope that going beyond the Bulletin lets you see the power that you have to make your own decisions if you so desire.
Looking Ahead
For the active OTC BB player, these look like good movers ITFI, NGMC, DLGI, and LENF
The NASDAQ has entered seriously over sold levels and we should be expecting a bounce soon. Dip buying will minimize risk in the current market. I don't plan on doing much trading, but I'll keep watch and periodically update you throughout the day. Charts will need more time to set up before we can trade with confidence again. I will add new shorts to the short sheet daily but I will only update the existing list once a week. I've added two more tonight. Cash is King once again.
As always, thank-you for your support past, present and future! Have a great night everyone; we'll see you all Tuesday evening.
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