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Wednesday, February 18, 2004
Good evening friends,
Market Recap
Another down day for this market as it continues to search for direction. Although not many Bulletin stocks made new highs, contrary to what some may believe, about half of the current Bulletin stocks closed up today in the green. Some are concerned that small caps are under performing the market; that may be true, but as far as the Bulletin goes, we are holding our own. The market just can't seem to find direction and as I pointed out last night, it's tough to do anything but day trade in a market like this. This week is triple witching option expiration on Friday and this could add an already volatile market, so be aware.
We have made a slight adjustment in the TWPD scans to add stocks between $10.00 and $20.00. The reason for this (as I mentioned a few months back) is because the quality of stocks below $10.00 is dwindling. This is because many of the stocks we were following have dramatically increased in price. Many of the stocks we were following when our service first started were in the $2.00 - $3.00. Now those same stocks are $8 – $10 or higher. We must adjust or get left behind.
Bull, Bear or Hog?
I'm sure everyone knows about bulls and bears. Bulls run rampant when the market is moving upwards. Everyone is ready to buy and there's happiness in the streets. A bull is willing to pay a little bit more for a stock in a rising market, because they are betting on the stock continuing to climb. Bears are always the pessimists in the crowd. They look for overextension in the marketplace and thrive when the market is in decline. They are willing to sell a stock short for a little bit less, because they are betting on a continued market decline.
A hog can consider themselves to be either a bull or a bear. What distinguishes them goes right back to basic emotions. A hog is greedy. They will make trades just for the sake of trading. You'll often hear a hog say something like “I need to get my money back out of XYZ. I'm going to short them and get back what they took from me.” Hogs will often take an over inflated position in a stock. They feel that if their stock pays off for them it's going to pay off huge. The problem is that when the stock takes an unexpected dive, they are taken to the cleaners and possibly wiped out for good. I try to teach everyone to take smaller positions in a number of stocks, based on a percentage of your overall portfolio. If you spread the money around you also reduce your risk. You will also not be clinging to any one stock in the hopes of a huge payday. TFSM is a good example. This stock had tanked on news since we bought it, but I sold today for only a 4% loss. It had been down about 15% from the buy point. 15% of 5% or 10% of your portfolio is nothing. That doesn't even begin to put a dent in mine. However, if we had put 25% of our portfolio in that one stock and sold with the crowd the day of the news, it would have been a big blow to our bottom line. Money management is the key to our system, just a small amount in each trade and trading with confidence by reacting to the reaction of the crowd and NOT reacting WITH the crowd.
Neither Bull nor Bear (nor Hog!)
Did you know that the best traders have no affiliation to either a bull or a bear? They simply trade in the direction of the market or particular stock. They will short a stock when the chart tells them it's going to decline. They will buy stock when the rest of the market is in fear of buying, because the chart has told them where support should be. I would like to think that TWPD is teaching a number of you to avoid labeling yourself as a bull or a bear. I don't subscribe to either affiliation and would prefer to make money in either type market because the charts are telling me when to buy and when to short. So the next time you are asked if you're a bull or a bear say “Neither, I'm a member of TWPD”.
For the active OTC bb player, here are some for your watch list SDNA, GOJO, and AMWS
As always, thank-you for your support past, present and future! Have a great night everyone; we'll see you all Thursday evening.
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