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Wednesday, February 11, 2004
Good evening friends,
The Market Likes Greenspan
A very nice day in the markets today, the Dow came within 2 points of its 52 week high with a 123 point gain. The NASDAQ tacked on 14 points and closed at the highs of the day. Both of these moves came on very good volume so this is a positive sign. We need to see a high volume accumulation day like this to end the corrective cycle we have seen in the last two weeks. Allan Greenspan testified before congress today and the market liked what it heard. I personally can't understand a word the guy says, but as long as the market understood and seemed happy with it, then that's all I need to be concerned with.
Using the ADX
The NASDAQ's ADX line continues to trend downward. What this tells us is that there is no short term momentum in either direction. The daily stochastic indicator gave the buy signal last Thursday evening when the NASDAQ was over sold. As a result of this over sold indicator, the market rallied the next day and closed strong. The rally was also helped by the smart money that did not want to let the NASDAQ touch 2000 again. We have witnessed a modest rally since then. When the stochastic indicator reaches overbought again, selling will ensue once again - unless of course there is enough up volume to get the ADX momentum line to turn up. When the ADX line turns up, it is a confirmation of the direction either way.
Charts On the Mend
Many of the small cap stocks did very well today; they are either on the move or on the mend. Some charts are starting to look good after the repair process, and I have been able to clearly define some buy points for us to act on soon. I have identified these buy points on the Bulletin in the comments section. I saw a lot of good charts tonight in the TWPD Scans. With the 3 new stocks I bought today that were not on the Bulletin yesterday, we have a total of 8 new stocks for you since yesterday. This tells me that we may be headed for another leg up on the NASDAQ. Hopefully DELL will report some good earnings tomorrow after the bell to set us up for a nice day Friday.
I would like to point out that when a new stock goes on the Bulletin (or in the case of OTC BB stock, mentioned in the commentary), it does not mean that they are going to take off the next day. It very well could, but in most case, it could take a few days before the breakout. I can't always hit them the night before, that is very hard to do and those stocks are very hard to find. Remember these new stocks are for your watch list just to keep an eye on in case they fire up. I have had many e-mails about this topic lately - “PD you placed a stock on the Bulletin/Commentary and it didn't go up today, why not?” - that kind of e-mail. All I can say is that we do our best to find stocks that are ready to breakout, and we place what we feel are the best prospects out of those stocks on the Bulletin. Some do breakout, and some don't breakout right away. Just keep them in your watch list as the chart unfolds.
For the active OTC BB player, here are some for your watch list WDPT, FSRC, and IPVO.
As always, thank-you for your support past, present and future! Have a great night everyone; we'll see you all Thursday evening.
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