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Thursday, February 05, 2004
Good evening friends,
Well, the NASDAQ never touched 2000 today (I did not think it would), but the buying was not impressive either so I chose to stay out of the market and not take many new positions. I did buy NUVO early in the day but that was it. The smart money has decided that they are not ready to get in just yet, and we always try to follow the smart money. Therefore, our trading today was also limited.
In the last two weeks, the NASDAQ has given back all of its gains from the first 3 weeks of 2004 (7%). In that same time period, TWPD has gained 48%. In the last 5 weeks we've tacked on about 7% to our overall bottom line since inception, and we are now up to 214%. We started the year just above 200%. If we had started over on January 1, 2004, our percentage gain would be 48%. In the trade record you'll see both a cumulative trade record since inception and a separate trade record for 2004. I want to make this clear because I'm getting emails with questions about these gains. I assure you the accounting is accurate and the last thing we want to do is mislead our subscribers or inflate our returns. If you have any questions, you can easily make up a spreadsheet starting with 100K, put 5% of the available cash in each trade I make, follow the buy and sells, and annotate this spreadsheet with the prices of the alerts. By doing so, you will mirror our trades and see that our trade record is accurate.
These results show the difference it can make to your bottom line by comparing our aggressive trading style to the passive buy and hold approach. We talk a lot about stocks that we get right and make good returns. There is also another side of trading that we rarely talk about, and I'd like to do that tonight. It is probably the most important aspect of trading other than being able to pick winners. Part of being a successful trader not only depends on how much money you make, but also on how much money you prevent yourself from losing. In other words, you have to know when to get out of a trade and when not to take a position. I am a firm believer in not looking back once you decide to get out of a position, but I've decided tonight that we will look back just this once to review some of the past bulletin stocks that we have sold and/or removed from our list. I rarely do this, so take heed to this lesson in stop loss protection tonight.
When I drop stocks from the bulletin, they are removed for a good reason. If you are long in the stocks I remove, it may be a good Idea to sell your position at that time. The asterisk (*) in the comments gives at least a day's notice that a stock will be removed from the Bulletin. Sometimes I leave the asterisk there for more than a day if I am leaning towards removing a stock, but I am undecided. The asterisk gives you plenty of notice about my intentions. Recent examples of this are NOOF, TRPH, and NMGC. These were removed from the Bulletin, because I felt the runs were over and they were getting ready to rollover. Check the charts of these 3 stocks and you'll see what I mean. There are many other examples you can check as well, including ALTI, CORV, SPIL, IKN, ORB, TGA, MCLD, WGAT, VC, AZPN, EGHT, AMWS, and VLNC. All these stocks were good runners in the past, but when the up trend stopped, it was time to leave the party. Fortunately the signals were there for us in advance. I have a few charts of these examples below. It is just as important to follow my sells and it is my buys. Following these sells and removals from the bulletin can save you a lot of pain, as you'll soon see from the charts tonight. A subscriber requested some technical analysis on EAG, and I have a chart tonight on that.
Some subscribers have also asked about placing protective stops. Tonight's charts are dedicated to the subject of stop losses; it is probably one of the most important Charts annotations you'll read from TWPD. Knowing when to sell is the key to making massive amounts of money. I urge you to review the ‘All Charts' section to look up previous charts of these stocks. You can also find my previous comments on stocks that have fell off the bulletin in the ‘All Tickers' section.
I also would like to reiterate to do your DD before buying any stock I buy. Often I am not aware of earnings or news that might affect the stock price. For example, only after I bought NUVO today did I find out the earnings release was today. I buy solely on chart pattern and don't look at the earnings calendar before buying. This is a weakness in our system, but there is not enough time to research every single stock I have on my watch lists. These lists change every night based on chart patterns and scans, and there are just too many to research. The chart is the most important piece of research to me, and that is what I look at first. If there is time, I may look further into the fundamentals of a stock, but that is rare.
We are down to 31 stocks on the Bulletin tonight. I will continue to drop stocks that don't perform and preserve cash for better market conditions. For those OTC BB players with us, here are some potential movers for tomorrow: FNIX, CICI, GTEC, and EENT.
As always, thank-you for your support past, present and future! Have a great night everyone; we'll see you all Sunday evening.
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