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Wednesday, February 04, 2004
Good evening friends,
A very ugly day for the NASDAQ today as it fell 52 points; this is the most we've seen the NASDAQ fall in a single session in quite sometime. The morning selling occurred as expected would happen from yesterday's Bulletin. However, we did not get the afternoon buying I thought would happen to support the market. This was very surprising. When we did not get any support from the pros in the last hour, I decided not to buy anything either. The NASDAQ is indicating it wants to test the 2000 level in a hurry, and it should happen tomorrow if it does try to test that level. I don't think it will get there; in other words, a bounce should come before that. Let me explain why I think this bounce will occur. 2000 is a psychological level that everybody and their brother know about, and everyone is looking for this bounce to come at that round number. I think the smart money will come in before this level to beat everyone else to the punch. I could be wrong so do not bet the farm; it is just seems too obvious and by now you should know that the market never does the obvious.
We survived another day of the onslaught by locking in a 26% gain on TPPP in 24 hours. Trades like this really help the bottom line on days the NASDAQ drops 50 points. We are now 50% cash with the positions closed today. Today I sold open positions that had a slight gain or loss. We still have some losers to deal with but since we have 50% cash to work with, it's not imperative that we sell these losers right now. AIRN, AXO, EPMN, and now PARS seems to have caught us by surprise and tanked on us. It's not very often we are stuck with four losers at the same time, but needless to say, it has happened and there is not much we can do about it right now. Like the winners, we don't count the percentage gain until the trades are closed, so the same holds true with the losers. Until the trades are closed the profit or loss is not calculated. Currently our closed trade record is up 214% since inception and up 48% in the first 5 weeks of 2004. Yes, we do hold some losers but these percentage gains overwhelm the few losers we do have. There is no way for us to be right 100% of the time on every trade. I know most of you understand this, but for the few who have sent me nasty email about AXO and PARS today, I hope you can understand that I am only human and I hope you consider the previous 8 months trading record before you nail me to the cross and stone me.
We are cleaning house on the Bulletin. We have been removing many stocks and tonight will not be an exception. I've identified more stocks that we must remove in tomorrow's Bulletin. These are identified by the (*) at the beginning of the comments. If we keep this up, we won't have any stocks left to watch. Sorry folks, but this happens when stocks take a tumble. I don't want to buy these stocks now because of the heavy damage to their charts so there is no need to keep them on our list. If we get down to 10 stocks or less, so be it. We'll let our cash position increase and wait for trading opportunities to arise in the future. As I mentioned in a recent Bulletin, February is normally a bad month for the market and it looks as though history will repeat itself again this February.
Market sell offs can be brutal unless you have prepared ahead of time. I think we did a good job forecasting this sell off so it should have came as no surprise to most of you. I wish instead of only going to 50% cash we would have gone to 75 or 80%, but that is hindsight. I was playing both sides of the street because the market was getting over sold, and I didn't want to be sitting in mostly cash in case a nice bounce came. A bounce should be coming soon and we can sell into the strength on our open positions and regroup at that time.
As you might have guessed with today's NASDAQ action, stock scans came up empty tonight. I found no new stocks worthy of mention as new entries, but I did find some OTC BB stocks to put on your watch list. They are IBAS, GPSN, GTEC, UNWR, BICO, and SRAM.
As always, thank-you for your support past, present and future! Have a great night everyone; we'll see you all Thursday evening.
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