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Sunday, February 01, 2004
Good evening friends,
We've already had a great year, and it's only been one month, LOL. Our percentage gain for the month of January was 41% - a very good month indeed. Most people (i.e. the average investor) will not make 41% in the market in the next 2 or 3 years and we have done it in one month. February starts a new month of trading; if we can duplicate January's performance, we'll be up 80% in two months, and we will be well on are way to doubling our money in the first 3 months of the new trading year. Just to put these gains in perspective, I've compared our gains to gains made by the NASDAQ over the same time frame (January 2004). You may think that the NASDAQ had a great January and is also up big but a closer look reveals the real story. On January 2, 2004 the NASDAQ opened at 2011. On January 30, 2004 the NASDAQ closed at 2066. This is a gain of less than 3%. In fact, even at the high of the year/month when the NASDAQ was at 2153, this was a gain of just 7%. 7% is a very good month for the NASDAQ, but towards the end of January, the NASDAQ gave back more than half of its gains for the month. I'm making a point of this tonight, because I'm trying to stress the importance of recognizing when a pullback may be coming and reducing exposure to long positions before the carnage hits the streets. By doing this, you will protect your capital, lock in gains, and guarantee yourself to have your cash standing by. This cash is locked and loaded, ready to trade again when the trend starts back up. 41% sure beats the heck out of 2.7%. Even if the market did not have this pull back and closed at the high of the month, 41% still beats the 7% the NASDAQ made before the sell off.
We continue to out perform the market every month since we started, and month after month we consistently pummel the average investor's performance. The point is, timing the market is crucial to making massive profits in the short term as opposed to average profits by holding though the pull backs. I'll never forget the basher on the UBET board last year who told me my style of trading (i.e. trading frequently) would cause me to pay an enormous amount of taxes. My response to him was that I would love to pay an enormous amount of taxes at the end of every year. Folks, the only way you will have to pay enormous taxes is if you are making enormous amounts of money. People, who don't have to pay taxes, aren't making any money; it's as simple as that. I don't know about you, but I sure would like to be in a position to have to pay taxes as opposed to not having to pay any at all. Needless to say, I never heard from him again.
You'll notice in tonight's Bulletin that I am planning to remove 8 or 9 stocks from our list. I left them on for one more night so you could review the charts of these stocks and see why I am planning to remove them. This NASDAQ pullback has damaged many charts and it will take some time for these charts to repair themselves. No need to watch them if we don't plan on buying them, so they will be removed tomorrow night. I will keep the stocks that I feel have held up well through the down turn. Of course, we'll have to keep losers like EMPN and AXO until we can figure out how to get out of these trades with minimal loss. If you are sitting on a large cash position, then it's okay to hold these dogs for now, as you still have plenty of cash to work with. If you have a small cash position, you may want to take a loss and get into some movers in order to recoup your loses faster. Holding a stock because you don't want to take a loss is incorrect since it will cost you the opportunity to buy other stocks. I'll hold these for now because I am currently at about 70% cash as of last week, so I'm not losing any opportunities by holding them.
February is historically a lackluster month for market returns. Because charts are damaged, this will cause our trading to become a little slower then normal. Damaged charts and a typically slow February may reduce our returns slightly. I want you to be prepared for some possible slow times. 41% is not sustainable month after month. There will be some months when returns are lower but the important number is our overall return over the course of the year. No guarantees that our past performance will continue in the future, but we will always do our best to get you the most return possible. I'll give you the best odds we can to beat the market and slaughter the average investor's return, hands down. ?
Some OTC BB stocks to keep an eye on for possible moves soon are NPCT, WIZD, GTEL, UVSO, UDTT, and WTAI.
As always, thank-you for your support past, present and future! Have a great night everyone; we'll see you all Monday evening.
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