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Wednesday, January 21, 2004
Good evening friends,
Yesterday, the Dow was the dog and the NASDAQ was green. Today was just the opposite, as the Dow came roaring back and erased all of yesterday's losses. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ finished in the red ever so slightly. The bulls just will not let this rally die as they keep buying every pullback in sight. The NASDAQ, although closing negatively, did manage to make another 52 week high. “Higher highs and higher lows” constitute an up trend, and we are seeing this in the NASDAQ chart. Bulletin stocks making new highs today include NOOF, ISO, AXTI, LGF, VC, ALTI, IONA, AIRN, CMGI, VLNC, WGAT, MCLD, and GEMS.
Rolling, Rolling
Several of our stocks that made new highs also closed near the lows of the day; this is not positive and may be an indication that some small caps will be rolling over, at least for now. This would not surprise me after witnessing the vast run-ups we have had in these stocks. I sold some early in the trading session to lighten up on some positions in anticipation of the pullback which I noted in last night's commentary may occur. Because of these recent big gains, there may be a small rotation out of small caps. People will start taking profits at some point. I continue to believe any pullback in these stocks will be buying opportunities. For these reasons, I've started to raise a little cash. The market has been on a tear and needs a rest, but I don't foresee a long rest. This market is going up and will do so for the next few months, in my opinion.
Bulletin 101
For all the new subscribers, I wanted to take this time to make sure you are aware of how we use the bulletin to trade stocks. For those who have been with us for a while, please bear with me on this. I feel we need to cover this topic because some of the e-mails I receive indicate that people may be a little confused on how we use the Bulletin. I'll cover each column to clarify things. (Please refer to the online version of the Bulletin for column names, they are slightly different in the Excel file of the Bulletin).
1. ‘Listed' column is the date the stock first appeared on the bulletin. (This date will not change).
2. ‘Entry' column is the price the stock at the open the morning AFTER it appeared on the Bulletin. (This price does not change).
3. ‘Open trades' in the ‘Type' column are trades I have a position in. That is, stocks that I have purchased and have no yet sold.
4. ‘Watch list' in the ‘Type' column are stocks I am watching for a possible entry point.
5. ‘Closed Trades' in the ‘Type' column are trades we closed on the day of the bulletin. They should only be closed trades for one day, the next day the stock is either removed from the bulletin or the category changes back to watch list if we are looking to get back in the stock later.
6. The term ‘Buy Point' is the price that I feel is a good price to buy the stock. The Buy Point will first show up in the comments section until it is reached. Once a buy point is reached, the buy point price will be taken out of the comments section and appear in the ‘Buy' column. I may or may not purchase a stock at the buy point. The buy point price will not change. However there is one exception, the buy point changes on stocks that we buy to double up on to reflect the average price of the two buys. An example would be today's buy of EAG. I normally use only 5% of my total portfolio value in any one stock so if I double my position, I'm now using 10%. Today I bought EAG again at 1.96, my first buy was 1.66 so my average is 1.81 and that now becomes the Buy Point in the ‘Buy' column, even though that was really not the original buy point. This will be the only case it will change like that but it's to show the average price of the total purchase.
7. ‘Sold' column is the price we sold the stock at.
8. ‘C. Date' column (stands for Comment Date). This is the date the comments were last updated on the stock. I do not update every comment every day. I will make a new comment when something significant happens that day like, a new high, a trade, a trend line or support break, ect. If a stock makes a new high, the date will change regardless of whether the comment was updated or not.
9. ‘Comments' column – an asterisk (*) at the beginning of the comments indicate that the stock is in jeopardy of being removed from the bulletin for various reasons such as, trend or support break, closed trade, lack of volume or movement, or just to make room for more favorable stocks. A (DD) at the beginning of this column indicates that we have doubled down on our position (this does not happen often).
Also note:
- A buy point is only good the first time it hits. Once the stock price has moved from the comment section to the buy point column, it is no longer a valid buy point and should not be considered in your trading decision.
If there are any other questions on how to use the bulletin, please ask us on the message board and one of us (myself or one of the moderators) will do our best to answer your question.
Big Earnings Release
MSFT releases earnings tomorrow after the bell; this is the big one Ethel! If the earnings are good, the tech stocks should rally. If they don't come through, they could sink most boats on the NASDAQ. Tomorrow may be flat and boring just because traders will be waiting on this news. Friday should be wild either way. Be watchful for the stocks that have closed on the lows of the day today. Keep tight stops in place to protect your profits. Have a great night everyone; we'll see you all Thursday evening.
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