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Monday, December 29, 2003
Good evening friends,
The January Sell-Off
The elusive NASDAQ 2000 is finally here. Both the Dow and NASDAQ are at 52-week highs going into the last two trading days of the year. I think I may have mentioned this before but I had a very good feeling the street wanted these indices to finish the year above the 10,000 and 2,000 levels. This close above the 2000 level for the NASDAQ is about as positive as it gets going into the New Year. This could very well bring in more buyers and keep the momentum going tomorrow. The first week of January sell-off I have been mentioning is now in jeopardy with this positive close. It still could happen but I think if we see one, it will only be brief and the upside should continue later in January.
A Look Back
Back in May of this year when we first started this service, the NASDAQ was trading just under 1500. I said back then that I thought we were seeing the beginnings of a new bull market and I had an end of year target for the NASDAQ of 2000. Here we are two days from the end of the year and the target is hit. In this time frame, the NASDAQ is up 25% over the last 7 months while our TWPD trade record is up 170%. This is why I'm a firm believer in momentum trading. People who put their money in the QQQ over the same period have lagged miserably compared to our performance. Even so, I'll be the first to admit we could have even done better than we have. Over the last month, our small caps have lagged the market and it shows in our trade record. There are a lot of trades in the red, albeit they are small losses, but they do add up. Let's just say, it wasn't our best month but I'm confident, we'll be on a roll again in the near future.
For Tomorrow…
With the NASDAQ closing above a key resistance level, I would normally be buying everything insight tomorrow morning but because we are so close to the end of the year, I'm holding off for now. The last thing I want to do is go full-boat-long and have no cash if we do get the January sell off. I did a little tax loss selling today by dumping two losers: ARTX and AXO. I also sold ENMC (a very good stock). If you still hold ENMC, don't be alarmed at the sale, there was no sell signal, I just wanted to free up some cash. With the Dow and NASDAQ at 52 week highs tonight we have many bulletin stocks that also reached new highs today. They are: AIRN, ALTI, CRGN, TGA, MDR, ISO, OMNI, EGOV, TRPH, CPHD, and VC. These stocks are hitting on all cylinders and are running with the best of them. Let's see if we can stay above this 2000 level for a few days and try to build on this momentum. I'd love to see the NASDAQ at 3000 by election time. It's too early to start thinking of targets for the end of 2004, but 3000 sure looks like a good round number (More to come in the first few months of the year, after I can get a feel for what kind of pace we'll be on). Here are a couple of NASDAQ small caps with great charts: NMSS and CYBS (I can't put them on the Bulletin because the volume is too thin). For the active OTC BB player, ADZN, PGOL and MDTV still look good. Have a great night everyone, we'll see you all Tuesday evening.
Flash back Aug 21th Bulletin
Watch list NOOF 8/21/03 Comments: I Expect this to pop out of this triangle any day now BP 3.88.
This stock went to a high of 9.76 for a 151% gain
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