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Sunday, December 21, 2003
Good evening friends,
The week of Christmas should be a relatively light week of trading, I don't expect much from the markets. Earlier on Sunday the Department of Homeland Security raised the threat level to high and this could effect Wall Street come Monday morning. I doubled my positions in HEC and EAG and I also bought VLGC in after hours on Friday. I'm satisfied with these positions going into Christmas break. Next week, we should see some selling in the stocks that have under performed this year because people will want to sell their losers for tax loss purposes to offset their gains. This type selling should begin soon and pick up heavy starting Dec 29th.
The Energy sector
If you recall about 3 months ago I said the energy sector would be a great place to park some money this winter because I expected that sector to make a nice run. My review of that sector this weekend has proven this prediction to be coming true. Most of these stocks have had good run-ups in the last few months. These stocks are normally slow movers and for this reason I am only looking for the small cap stocks in this sector. Those are the ones that will yield us the most return in my opinion. After reviewing this sector, I found many big cap stocks with charts that look good but these are higher priced stocks. Of the lower priced stocks I found many that look good but not nearly enough volume for us to be involved in. The ones we have already HEC, PYR, TGA and PQUE are the ones with the best charts in the group for now. I will list others here that look good with enough volume but I will not put them on the Bulletin just yet, they include ABP, TMR, KCS, PETD, PLX, RRC and TSO,
Stop Loss orders
I have received some emails from subscribers who have asked why I didn't send alerts to sell ARTX and SSTR. I'd like to take this opportunity to discuss these trades and why no alerts have been sent to sell. First in the case of ARTX, I was away from my computer on the day the stock tanked; there was nothing I could do about that. I did list a stop loss and support at 2.50 and when the stock fell below that, it should have been sold whether I was around to issue a sell alert or not. Nobody should be stuck in this trade at this point. The support at 2.50 was very clear in my comments. I would very much like to close the trade at 2.50 in the Official TWPD Trade Record but I won't do that because there was no alert sent. Our alert system ensures the integrity of our trades and if I just say I closed the trade with no alert, then that integrity becomes questionable. I usually give notice when I'm going to be away from my screens on any given day. This is a red flag for you to be watching your positions very closely and heed the stop loss prices or support levels I've identified on the charts and in the comments on the bulletin. Doing this, can save you much heartache if one of our trades goes the wrong way.
In the case of SSTR
That stock should have been sold when it fell below 2.00. I was by my computer when this dropped below 2.00 but the problem I have with this stock is its lack of liquidity. In other words, I could not sell my position due to lack of volume. When you fantasy paper trade, you can say you sold 5 million shares of XYZ even though the stock only traded 50K shares that day. Paper trading does not take into consideration the liquidity factor. When real money is on the line, you can't do this. If the buyers are not there to support the selling, the stock will tank so you have no choice but to hold and that is what happened to me with SSTR. I hold a big position in the stock and the volume in the last week has been very low on the decline in price. This made it impossible for me to sell my position even though I wanted to. I even posted one day that I was trying to sell but the volume wasn't there. If I were fantasy paper trading, or a dishonest person, I could have easily sent an alert and closed the position at much higher prices. We don't fantasy paper trade at TWPD; this is the real deal with real money at work. We could be like another message board (that will remain nameless) or even other service's and say we sold ARTX at a 2.50 stop loss when it fell through but we don't do that. It's easy to inflate your percentage gains when you have a pre-existing stop loss and say you sold when it hit. The problem is, it's just fantasy and is not realistic unless real money and real trades are being made.
The TWPD alert system
Every trade we make is based on an alert sent out to our subscribers in real time. If there is no alert then there is no trade. All trades are documented in real time using our alert system through our website and recorded for the record. They are also recorded on our yahoo member's board with exact times I sent the alert. All alert times can be verified on daily charts of stocks we trade; this ensures the integrity of the TWPD service. Unfortunately because of our integrity, our percentage gain will suffer a little because of these few and I reiterate “very few” bad trades that we are stuck in. I hope I have made it clear enough for you all to understand. I don't consider SSTR a bad trade because we are still in the money even though we have lost most of the over 100% gain we had in the trade since our buy point of 1.22 and 1.55, the stock went to 2.69. Somebody complained that I issued another buy point at 2.13 and yes that is true, I did, but again, the stock went to 2.69 so I was correct on the breakout above 2.13 so there was no reason to lose on the trade. This individual should have sold for a profit or set a stop loss just below 2.00 and he would have only had a 5% loss.
Some OTC BB stocks that look ready to move tomorrow are DBBD, MCTI, GDVI and VMII.
Have a great night everyone, I'll see you all Monday evening.
Make the holiday's Special: There are many children who won't have a gift to open this year, a toy to play with or a coat to keep them warn while they walk to school. Please see it in your hearts to donate a gift to a child this Christmas. Give a toy to the Toys for Tots campaign this holiday season or you can also donate some warm cloths to the Coats for Kids campaign. Your generous gift will be most appreciated by those who receive them. Thank you and happy holidays from TWPD.
Reminder **Holiday schedule** The Bulletin will be produced on 21- 23 December. The market is open a half day on the 24th and 26th of December. I will not produce a bulletin on Christmas day for the 26th half day of trade. The next bulletin after the 23rd will be Sunday the 28th. I will produce a bulletin on New Year's day for the 2nd of January trading.
Flash back Aug 21th Bulletin
Watch list NOOF 8/21/03 Comments = I Expect this to pop out of this triangle any day now BP 3.88. This stock went to a high of 9.76 for a 151% gain
Earnings Calendar.
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20031023.htm... |
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