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Thursday, December 11, 2003
Good evening friends,
Dow 10,000 is here and that is a great sign for the markets moving forward. This close above the 10,000 level is a very bullish sign and stocks should continue higher into the Christmas season. The NASDAQ also had a great day bouncing from near the 1900 level and rallying into the close yesterday and continued the rally today.
I sold some stocks today (perhaps too early) as I wanted to raise cash. Soon as I was finished with my selling this morning, good economic news came out and stock prices surged. You just can't predict news events and there is nothing you can do when the news goes against your trading. Selling before the news was a gamble but I thought the way Greenspam was talking the other day, doom and gloom was setting in. But then again, the market never does what it is expected to do. The news has not been good lately with the exception of today. It was a chance I took and I was wrong.
The good news is that I'm about 75% cash and ready to take advantage of some new winners that appear. I try to see the positive side of every situation, and now that I have taken money off the table, I have more to work with for newer trades. After today's action, charts are on the mend and if we get a few more days like this, they'll be plenty to choose from.
I saw a lot of bullish engulfing candles in the charts tonight and this suggests to me that a reversal is in progress on many stocks. Many of the bulletin stocks that have been down in the last few days came back nicely today from the over sold levels we talked about last night.
We also had a few stocks that made big moves today like EAR, IKN and ORB, all making double-digit gains and new 52 wk highs. ARTX also made a nice 18% move today bouncing from a severely over sold level. We went through a slump before with our small cap stocks under performing the market. This happened in July when the market was having a tough go of it. At that time, we went to cash and managed to stay on the sidelines until charts set up again and then we were right back finding winning chart patterns.
Markets go through cycles and we are in one of them now. Small caps have been out of favor for a week, but hopefully this action today will get them running again. The tide will lift all boats, and if this is a true Santa clause rally (and I believe it is) I still say NASDAQ 2000 before Xmas. That prediction is looking a little better tonight considering the Dow close d above 10000.
I'm not sure what my trading activity will be like tomorrow. I have a lot of cash to put to work but I do not want to chase stocks. I'm going to be patient and look for good set ups and may just go into the weekend with what I have now and see how we close tomorrow. My guess is an up day,but tomorrow is Friday and the sellers just may come in near the close to lock in profits before the weekend. I think the big boys on Wall Street want to close the year with both indexes above 10000 and 2000. It would look very good if the market headed into 2004 above those levels. Have a great night everyone; I'll see you all Sunday evening.
Reminder **Holiday schedule** The Bulletin will be produced on 21- 23 December. The market is open a half day on the 24th and 26th of December. I will not produce a bulletin on Christmas day for the 26th half day of trade. The next bulletin after the 23rd will be Sunday the 28th. I will produce a bulletin on New Year's day for the 2nd of January trading.
Flash back July 9th Bulletin
New Today XYBR 7/9/03 Comments = buy point .72. Bought today
This stock proceeded up to a high of 2.66, a 270% gain
Earnings Calendar.
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20031023.htm...
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