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Wednesday, December 10, 2003
Good evening friends,
The Dow touched 10,000 briefly yesterday and just like the NASDAQ did at 2000 then Dow immediately reversed course and retreated. Follow through on that reversal happened today but toward the close, it started a feeble attempt at recovery. The NASDAQ was only down 3 points on the day but looking at bulletin stocks, you would think it was down a lot more.
We are getting hammered, and it's because there is a rotation from small caps to large going on right now. Many of these small cap stock charts are now broken and it will take some time to recover. I hope you were able to set stops on these at a maximum of 10% loss. There will be times when I cannot be at my computer because of other commitments and you must follow the disciplines of our 10% stop loss rule or even tighter if you are a short term trader.
Today I had to leave for a couple hours and as a result, I was not around for the fall of some of these stocks, therefore I could not issue any sell alerts. I sold some stocks today that were either in the money or had very small losses in order to raise cash. I did not panic sell the stocks that dropped 10-15% today because most of these stocks have over sold readings and are due for a bounce soon. The charts are broken, so all we are doing is waiting to sell into strength. An example of this today is IVAN. That chart is very broken and if by chance you are still holding the stock, today was your chance to sell it and recoup some losses.
I will be dropping some of the bulletin stocks off our watch list tonight. They are indicated with an * on the Bulletin [Excel file]. You won't find many new 52 week highs on our list tonight but we did manage to squeak out two, they were MDR and EAR. Wow! Big deal right?
In hindsight, the proper move would have been to go to all cash the day the NASDAQ touched 2000 and turned back. This was an indication that there was not enough buying pressure to keep stocks up. However, there was no way of knowing from the charts at the time that a big rotation was coming out the small caps. This has to be a coordinated effort from the big hedge and mutual funds. The average small investor just can't move stock prices this much in just a few days. The big boys probably had a plan to sell when they touched 2000 and 10000. If you blinked yesterday, you missed Dow 10,000. It didn't stay there long, NASDAQ déjà vu all over again.
Just like last night, stock scans are revealing very few stocks to be long. I did find 1 new stock for tonight but even so, I would not rush out to buy it in this market right now. Admittedly, we have still too many open positions to be comfortable with at this moment. As far as new positions, there just isn't anything looking good enough to risk our capital at this time. Cash is king and I raised more today. I hope that if you didn't have much capital that you read my pre-market alert and sold today to raise some cash. It is imperative that you sell, even if you have to take a loss, because once the trend and support lines have been broken, there is no telling how low these stocks can drift. The NASDAQ did try to muster a good close today so maybe it's time for a bounce tomorrow.
We need a NXXI type move in one of our stocks. For those of you who were not with us a couple months back, we bought NXXI at .55 and held a couple weeks and woke up one day to find it up 100% in pre-market. We doubled our money while we slept- now that is what I'm talking about!!! I wish I could bring you better news but, “it is what it is”.
Have a great night everyone; I'll see you all Thursday evening.
Reminder **Holiday schedule** The Bulletin will be produced on 21- 23 December. The market is open a half day on the 24th and 26th of December. I will not produce a bulletin on Christmas day for the 26th half day of trade. The next bulletin after the 23rd will be Sunday the 28th. I will produce a bulletin on New Year's day for trading on January 2nd, 2004.
Flash back July 9th Bulletin
New Today XYBR 7/9/03 Comments = buy point .72. Bought today
This stock proceeded up to a high of 2.66, a 270% gain
Earnings Calendar.
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20031023.htm...
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