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Sunday, December 07, 2003
Good evening friends,
Ever since the NASDAQ briefly touched 2000, it's been down hill ever since. I've been saying that this level was going to be tough to break through; touching it then reversing mid-day does not count as a break through. It must close above 2000 for it to be considered a valid break through. My year end target of 2000 could still happen, we have three weeks of trading left in the year and I still think we will make it. Just touching 2000 last week does not count as target fulfillment. I'm not satisfied with just reaching the number; I want to break through it. We want to close above it before 30 December and I think we still have a chance.
I have a chart of the NASDAQ tonight to update you on the status of this index. I expect it to go down to 1920 and bounce from there and make a nice rally into the year's end. If this should happen, remember what I said about the January effect on many of the big winners over the past year. They will sell off Jan 2nd or 3rd so don't be surprised if I go to mostly cash toward the end of December even if the NASDAQ is rallying into the end of the year. The first week in January is not a time to be in the market in my opinion. I'll step back and just watch that week, only day trading the movement.
I still believe 2004 will be a good year for stocks but that first week will be a wild roller coaster ride and will only be good for day trading. I may even short a couple stocks going into the end of year. SNDK, ERTS, AMZN, and YHOO are a few that come to mind for shorting, I'll have more as we get closer to years end. Looking at the chart of the NASDAQ, you'll see that it has fallen below the 50 DMA a few times and has bounced back, so don't panic if we fall below the 1920 level. What concerns me the most about this index is that it is becoming predictable. That's not good because as soon as we become complacent, it will shock us into reality and do something drastically different to throw us off and shake us out. We all know the market doesn't like to be predictable and will do the opposite of what the majority expects it to do.
Despite the NASDAQ being down 30 points on Friday, we had many bulletin stocks forging ahead valiantly. AIRN was up 10%, PMU was up 13%, GBN was up 12%, TGAL was up 8%, NOOF up 8%, ALTI up 10%, TRPH up 8%, and MDR was up 10%. The bullish engulfing candle I mentioned on the MDR chart in my previous comments worked like a charm again just as the bearish engulfing candle worked for our sell of AKAM before it tanked the next day.
Not only did we have these big advances in the above stocks on Friday's down day; we also have 52 wk highs in the following stocks, AIRN, GNLB, GBN, MDR, TGAL, SSTR, and TRPH. My stock scans came up short of any real good stocks this weekend due to the market action the last few days. I do have a couple of new stocks but please don't chase these ones. Let's hold off buying Monday morning until we get a feel for the direction we are headed. Here are a couple of stocks you might look at to day trade tomorrow PDLI and IBIS. Have a great night everyone; I'll see you all Monday evening.
Flash back July 9th Bulletin
New Today XYBR 7/9/03 Comments = buy point .72. Bought today
This stock proceeded up to a high of 2.66, a 270% gain
Earnings Calendar.
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20031023.htm...
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