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Sunday, November 30, 2003
Good evening friends,
Friday was a slow half-day of trading with low volume as a lot of people extended their Thanksgiving weekend and didn't trade at all on Friday (including myself). The NASDAQ was up just slightly while 30 of the 37 stocks on the last Bulletin were either flat or green for the day. Bulletin stocks making new 52-week highs included our gold stocks (GBN, PMU, CAU, CBJ - more about Gold stocks to follow in this commentary), TVIA, ARIA, MDR and that VoIP monster EGHT also making new highs.
The VoIP stocks have been red hot since EGHT started on its tear. We need to have a couple of these stocks but most of these have already sky rocketed. I've looked for some tonight promising VoIP stocks that have made moves but are still within reach for us not to be considered chasing.
I've also updated many stocks on the bulletin with fresh buy points. I will be very selective when buying these buy points this week because the NASDAQ is very near resistance levels. 1960 is proving to be a stubborn resistance point that talked about last week. If we can close above this level, I think we will make another assault on 1998 again. 2000 is going to be a bear to break through but if we do the NASDAQ and your long positions will be in great shape.
If you are not long on any Gold stocks you better get long soon. Gold is on the verge of breaking $400.00 and it could happen this week. This explains why every gold stock on our list was at a new 52 week high Friday. This is one reason I'm not selling PMU at this time. Normally, I would sell at least ½ my position since we are now up 100% on this stock from the buy point of 0.74. I don't want to sell any of this little gem if Gold prices are going above $400.00. We will also want to be long gold stocks for a nice hedge against any down turn in the NASDAQ.
1960 -1970 is resistance for the NASDAQ short term and longer term we know 2000 is major resistance. 400.00 is resistance for gold prices. Something has got to give very soon and it should happen in the next couple of weeks. I'm betting on Gold going above 400.00 and the NASDAQ to stall at 2000 and turn back. The NASDAQ will likely break 2000 on the 3rd attempt, this next attempt is the 2nd try. The first attempt came when it reached 1994 just before we went to cash and then we had the big sell off.
At this point, I think we still need to be long on strong tech stocks and many of these are on the Bulletin with revised buy points tonight. I am going to take it slow tomorrow, just to see how the market starts off so I may not buy every buy point identified. I need an over all good market before I go on a buying spree and because the NASDAQ is sitting right at resistance, I don't know if we will break through it or sell off tomorrow. We'll just have to let the market dictate our next move. I will not be available for trading Tuesday or Friday this week (see reminder below) so I would like to take some positions tomorrow if given the opportunity. I do know that I will be buying gold stocks for sure if gold goes above 400.00 this week.
To give you an example of the talking heads on TV and why we shouldn't listen to them, I thought I would bring the following example to your attention. One guy came on TV (I'll mention no names) and said this is the time to be shorting Gold. Another came on and said Gold will reach $1,000.00 in 2 years. Now I can't agree with either but one thing I would not do is short Gold here. Gold is about to explode if it gets above 400.00 so I would tend to lean towards the 2nd guy but not to that extreme, maybe 600.00 would be reaching but I certainly would not want to be short Gold right now. Because of these two different opinions on Gold, who will the average investor listen to? Now they are unsure and confused about what to do with gold after listening to these two talking heads on TV this weekend. The average investor doesn't know what to do and that is what the smart money wants. They want to confuse everyone don't they? There is no reason to ever be confused because the answer is in the charts.
I don't want to add too many new stocks to the bulletin right now because we have plenty on our current watch list that we still need to buy. I do want us to have some exposure to that red hot VoIP sector so I have added a couple new stocks in that area tonight to go along with EGHT. They are DDDC and SCKT.
For you day traders out there, watch NMSS with a buy point of 6.01 for a day trade.
Have a great night, I'll see you Monday evening.
Flash back July 1st Bulletin
New Today ONT 7/1/03 Comments = buy point 1.30 see chart..
This stock proceeded up to a high of 4.50 five trading days later, a 300%+ gain.
Reminder: I will not be available for trading on Dec 2nd or Dec 5th. On these days, I will not be on message boards or sending alerts so please pay close attention to buy points in the Bulletin.
Earnings Calendar.
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20031023.htm...
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