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Tuesday, November 18, 2003
Good evening friends,
I hope you all took heed to yesterday's commentary. I mentioned that I didn't think yesterdays close was for real. It did not close above yesterday's open price, and even though it made a nice late day rally, this was an indication that it may have been a false rally.
You must be cautious in times like these and read your charts before making any moves in this market. Both the Dow and the NASDAQ closed below their 50-Day moving averages and that is not good friends. I am the last person that wants to report this bad news but I have to be truthful and tell you that if you are not already in cash, you better get there very quickly. We need to close back above the 50 DMA in order for me to become more bullish. The 50 DMA is a longer-term indicator and if we stay below it, it will not be good longer term.
Momentum is driving the market lower and we can't stand in the way of momentum and get run over. We must get on board in whatever direction the momentum is going and go along for the ride. Somebody mentioned on the board today about getting a short list together. This person is ready to capitalize on whatever the market gives him, he is thinking ahead and planning his next move, a very smart trader IMO. If we have to take short positions to make money, we will. The market is getting to over-sold levels at this point so I would not short just yet but if we get a bounce up to prior support (now the resistance) then that is the time to get short.
Shorting is still very risky because the long-term trend has not been broken yet on the indices. Only when it breaks is it safe to short, so if you are going to short, please use extreme caution. I will look at some short candidates in the next few days depending on market action. Right now, we have a few long positions that we must watch and so far they have turned out well for us. It's okay to be long right now in selective powerful stocks but you must only hold the strongest stocks in the market and raise cash on your weak ones, I can't stress this enough.
Some of these powerhouse stocks are on our bulletin and they are making new 52-week highs even in today's blood bath. They include EVCI, CAU, NOOF, ANSR, CKSW, ARTX, RTK and CBJ. Gold stocks are on fire; it's okay to be in those right now. Also 26 of the 48 stocks listed on last night's Bulletin were green (up) today and many others were down just fractionally. This should tell you that only the best stocks in the market make it to the Bulletin. There are more good stocks out there that we miss sometimes (we can't possibly find them all) but we do find most that are moving up.
I have been hesitant the last few days to take long positions because of the way I thought things would unfold. With both the Dow and NASDAQ closing at the low's today, it's not looking good for tomorrow. Sometimes you just have to set your stop losses and walk away from your computer and tomorrow may be one of those days. There are not many stocks to choose from tonight to add to the Bulletin.
This market action has done a number on most charts and it could take some time for charts to set up again in order for us to add to the Bulletin. For now, we'll just go with what we have and keep our stops in place. I said cash is king this week and I wasn't kidding. Ride the strong stocks up until they turn against you and keep tight stops to protect your profits. I wish I could bring to you better news tonight but it is what it is. The good news if any about all this is, for every sell off there is a rally. If you are in cash, you can profit big with that cash if we can call a bottom and get in at the right time. Soon these market sell-offs will not bother you at all. I never worry about sell-offs because most of the time, as you can see, I'm in cash before they happen. I think of it as an opportunity to prosper.
What most people don't realize is the big market crash of 2000 and the following 3 years was not a bad thing. It was an opportunity to gather and save your cash and put it to work back in the market at an opportunistic time. NASDAQ 1100 was a great time to capitalize on the great bear market. My portfolio is bigger now then at the peak in 1999 (NASDAQ 5000). How can that be, you ask? It's because I seized the opportunity to take what the market was willing to give on the short side and road it all the way down. You have to go with the direction of the market and never fight the trend. Look at this as an opportunity, stay positive, stay focused and we'll get through this and prosper. Have a great night everyone I'll see you Wednesday evening.
Flash back July 8th Bulletin
New Today EASY .85 7/08/03 Comments = If this thing could clear 1.00 it should be easy money. (This stock proceeded up to a high of 2.65 six days later, a 200% + gain!)
Note: Friends, there are many people out there who won't even have a meal this
Thanksgiving. Please, find it in your hearts to donate some canned goods, potatoes, rolls or
even a turkey to your local food bank. Let's help the less fortunate to be a little happier this
Holiday Season. Your donations will be greatly appreciated by those who receive them. Thank-you.
Earnings Calendar.
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20031023.htm...
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