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Sunday, November 16, 2003
Good evening friends,
Friday was not a good way to end the week and I'm afraid I can't bring you the good news you would like to hear tonight. Because of the rough sell off on Friday, there are not many stocks that have set up well for trades. I do have 4 new stocks for you tonight that I think can move this week. No matter what the stock market is doing, there is always some stocks going up and I'll try to identify them and bring them to you each night. Hopefully, some of our bulletin stocks can defy the market's direction and continue to rise for us, but if the sell off is powerful enough it will lower all boats in the water. I hate fighting the trend, so if this happens, you'll see me protect my cash with some prompt sell orders for sure.
Cash is king and tonight's chart of the NASDAQ has me ready to sell at the slightest breech of the 1900 level. The last couple of weeks on the NASDAQ has been confusing to say the least. It's been a roller coaster ride for sure, up one day down the next. During this time some stocks advanced only fractionally on high volume, this high volume churning can often lead to lower prices and I think we may get lower prices again this week. The NASDAQ made a very strong move from the lows in March to the highs in October and since then the market has done nothing but move sideways to lower. On a weekly chart of the NASDAQ, you can see a bearish rising wedge pattern that suggests lower prices could be coming soon. I had a daily chart of this last week that showed this bearish wedge. If the NASDAQ falls out of this wedge folks, our NASDAQ 2000 target will be in jeopardy for sure.
There are only a few stocks that look ready to move up tonight, which is not a good sign for the over all market in my opinion. It will take a few more days for more chart patterns to set up for trades. I wish I could have brought better news tonight but Friday's close on the NASDAQ was very negative. I think it's going to be at best a sideways to down week this week and that just may give us a chance to buy some stocks on the pullback and be in position for a rally in the weeks between Thanksgiving and Christmas (The “Santa Clause rally” as they call it). This Santa Clause rally should be the one that takes the NASDAQ to 2000 and beyond. I've been calling for NASDAQ 2000 by year's end for some time now and I still believe we'll get there but we have to get through the detour for now.
Remember what I said about the January effect? I'll talk about this more in the coming weeks but needless to say, we'll want to be all cash the 2nd or 3rd trading day of the New Year. This is when everyone will lock in their profits from 2003 so they do not pay taxes on that money until April 2005. This will cause enormous selling pressure in the market and the only thing that can support it is if the big institutions and mutual funds come in and start buying. Their fiscal year ended in October so they are not on the same calendar as the rest of us. If they don't step in to suppress the selling pressure, then I believe we'll have a January market sell off. In my opinion, the rally will start up again in late January. Next year is a presidential election year and I believe that will help the market. There are a lot of bumps ahead for us in the coming weeks. Long term holders will be fine; traders will need to be flexible in order to capitalize on the market fluctuations. For those of you playing the BB stocks, here is one that may be ready to run tomorrow (SEVU). Have a great night everyone I'll see you Monday evening.
Flash back July 8th Bulletin
New Today EASY .85 7/08/03 Comments = If this thing could clear 1.00 it should be easy money. (This stock proceeded up to a high of 2.65 six days later, a 200% + gain!)
Note: Friends, there are many people out there who won't even have a meal this
Thanksgiving. Please, find it in your hearts to donate some canned goods, potatoes, rolls or
even a turkey to your local food bank. Let's help the less fortunate to be a little happier this
Holiday Season. Your donations will be greatly appreciated by those who receive them. Thank-you.
Earnings Calendar.
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20031023.htm...
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