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Sunday, November 09, 2003
Good evening friends,
A new 52 week high for the NASDAQ on Friday climbing within just 8 points of the 2000 level. The Dow also made new highs and is moving towards 10000. These levels are going to be tough to get through and we saw an indication of that late Friday afternoon when the market started to sell off in the last hour. These late day market sell offs really set the stage for the next day's trading IMO. I expect the NASDAQ may continue down Monday and could go down to the 9 DMA which today stands at 1950. That should be good support and a chance to buy the dip. Rarely do these levels like 2000 get penetrated on the first test. The resistance and psychological effect is just too strong the first time. It may take a few attempts to get through it. I suspect that when we do break through 2000 on the NASDAQ that the Dow will break 10000 on the same day so look for that when it happens.
Bulletin stocks making new highs on Friday included EPNY, AKAM, EGLS, NOOF, EGHT, TIWI, EGOV, GEMS, WGAT, CORI and FNSR. Our goal when we started the service was to try and make 300% in a year on our money. So far, we are up 134% in just under 6 months. We are still on track but falling a little behind the pace at the moment. This is taking a very conservative approach and putting only 5% of my total capital in any one trade. The trade record is based solely on the 5% number. If you trade using the 10% max. rule then you have done even better.
I start with 5% and then sometimes I'll double up on a stock taking me to 10% but that is rare. Right now, I own double (or 10%) positions in LOUD, CORV, HEC and SSTR. The percentage of 134% is based only on closed trades. This does not include open trades or stocks that are on the watch list and first appeared on the Bulletin at much lower prices. Factor all these prices in and we would be up much more. Some have done much better than these figures by taking chances and putting more than 10% in each stock. I don't recommend this but some people have the knack for playing the winners and if it's working then more power to them.
The trade record is only a guide, there are many opportunities on the Bulletin that occur that I can't take advantage of due to either lack of cash or I'm busy with day trading and miss some (like CORI Friday) - it went through the buy point but I missed it because I was trading the wild swing in EAG at the same time. Please use the bulletin as your trading tool and set up your trades the night before so you don't have to rely on the alerts. I have said before that the alerts sometimes are not quick enough and by the time they get to your email box, the stock price has already moved on you.
If you use the Bulletin, you'll be buying at the same time I am and you won't get left behind. Most of these stocks move very fast when they break above the buy points so the key is to be in there before the alert. There are two reasons for the alerts, 1st is to notify you that I'm taking a position in a stock I have on the Bulletin. For the purpose of this service, I rarely trade stocks that are not on the Bulletin although it does happen on occasion if I see something moving during the day. The 2nd reason is to have an official record of the trades in case there are any questions about the validity of the trades later. All trade times and dates are recorded and documented for accounting purposes.
For those of you who can't day trade, I recommend you just buy-and-hold because most stocks on this bulletin continue to rise and will keep rising in this bull market. Buy-and-hold is a very good strategy in a bull market if you are in the most powerful market leaders.
Tomorrow may be a light day of trading for me. I don't think there will be much action on the upside but most of our stocks look good and selling some of these at this point could prove to be a mistake. LOUD is a different story. The chart is broke and is now dead money like CORV was for awhile. I own 10% of each so I'm right there with you if you are stuck in these. We are still in the money on HEC even though it has sold off dramatically. Hard to believe we had a 90% profit on this stock and let it come all the way back down to almost the original buy point .52. Like I said in one of our past bulletins, we are not going to be right 100% of the time. We will have our share of bad trades but I know we'll be right most of the time. If you use the 20% right example I gave in a prior bulletin, you could be wrong 4 out of 5 times and still make money. If you had EAG and WGAT this week then you made money even if those were your only winners for the week. The big 100% and 200% winners can dramatically increase your bottom line and wipe out a few small 10% losses very easily so stick to the rules and you'll begin to make serious cash in this market. Hopefully, after a brief dip to 1950 the NASDAQ can power back and we can shatter the 2000 level either late this week or next. Have a great night; I'll see you Monday evening.
Correction, The Market will be open on Veterans Day so I will publish a bulletin Monday evening. However I have plans to attend some activities that day so I will not be available for Trading.
Flash back Aug 25th Bulletin
Open Trade EGHT .93 8/24/03 Comments = Wants to form a triangle and then to the moon
Earnings Calendar.
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20031023.htm...
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