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Sunday, November 02, 2003
Good evening friends,
The markets are holding their own after a good run up. Keep in mind, October was the month all the talking heads were saying the market was going to drop because historically, October is bad for the market. I had many emails from people telling me that they were hearing many of these so called experts on BSNBC at the end of September saying that in October we would see a rough sell off in the markets. Well, here are the facts, The NASDAQ was up 8% for the month of October and the Dow was up 5%. Needless to say, this is why this financial channel is not one, and never will be, one of my favorite cable channels.
MSFT was down 6% for the month. I mention MSFT because this one stock holds a lot of weight in the DOW and the NASDAQ 100. So if MSFT is down for the month, what's moving the NASDAQ? I continue to believe it's a combination the semiconductor stocks like INTC and ATML and many of the small cap stocks that make up this index. INTC carries a lot of weight in the NASDAQ and if it's going up, the NASDAQ will most likely be going up as well.
What is not visible are the moves in the small cap tech area. For the last year, these stocks have been on a roll, some up 100, 200, 400, 500, 1000% or more. I have done well as a trader but I'll be the first to admit, in hindsight, I wish I had just held all the stocks I had 1 year ago. I remember having NT, SONS, PUMA, TWAV, TXCC and many others for under $1.00. I had many thousands of shares of each and traded in and out of these stocks on every move. Just holding these and never trading them could have proven to be a very good wealth building opportunity but who knew that they were going to make these type moves?
I believe there are still plenty of these opportunities out there available to us and some are on the bulletin now. Some of these stocks are already up 1000% from their lows and you may say, well, "I'm not going to buy a stock up that much from the low”. Please do yourself a favor and get rid of that mentality because many of these stocks will keep going up another 100, 200, maybe 500% from here. They will simply keep going up without you and you'll miss the ride. Think of it as a train, you're at the train stop waiting to get on, when the train stops (i.e. stock pulling back giving you a chance to get in) you have a choice to get on or stand there and see what the train will do. If you chose to just stand there and not make a move the train will leave without you, it will not wait. These stocks will continue up because the trend is up and the momentum will push them up just as many of these went down from $100.00+ to pennies.
When these stocks were over $100.00 each, Nobody could even imagine them falling to pennies but they did because the momentum sent them to those levels. Same thing is occurring now, nobody can imagine these stocks going from pennies to $5.00 and $10.00 but some have done just that and some will do that in the future. So don't ever think a stock has gone up too much for you to buy it. As long as the trend is up, it's safe to get in and join the ride, you get out when the trend changes and not until. Our trade Bulletin is full of these type stocks, most will go up from these levels.
There are 4 stocks on the watch list that I have not bought yet but will soon. They are TRPH, TIWI, TWAV and CORI. These are the best of the watch list IMO and we need to get in these. I don't have any new stocks tonight because I am concentrating on our currant watch list. I don't want to add new stocks when we still have watch list stocks that I feel we need to be in. We also have 47 stocks on tonight's bulletin. We need to free up some positions to make room for more stocks. To do this, I'm going to get ride of some of our losing open trades. CORV and ECGI will be removed from the bulletin. They will still be open trades on the trade record and I will look to sell these on strength or at the end of the year, which ever comes first.
You'll notice a change in the Bulletin tonight. I've added another column by request. It's called the ‘Entry Column'. This will be used to track the price of a stock when it comes on the Bulletin (new today). For instance, a new stock appears on tonight's Bulletin, it will not have an entry price. The price will be entered the next day at what ever the opening price was for the day after it appeared in the Bulletin. This will account for any stock that may gap up in the morning the day after it appears on the list. By doing this, it gives a more accurate rate of return if you were to buy at the open since the open is normally the high of the first 30 minutes of trade. Most of the time, you will be able to get in lower then the open price if you trade correctly. For stocks already on the bulletin, I went back and retrieved the price of the stock at the open the day after it appeared on the Bulletin. If I bought the stock, the price will be entered as my buy price or the open price which ever is lower. I'll see you all Monday night.
Announcement: I will be at the hospital with my wife tomorrow and possibly Tuesday so I will not be trading. I will be available for only the first two hours tomorrow and I'll have to leave. The stocks listed on the watch list are good to buy now and trade without me. I am going to try to get the 4 stocks from the watch list I mentioned above sometime in the first two hours of trade tomorrow before I have to leave. I will have a full Bulletin both days but it may be later then usual if she requires surgery. I'll know more tomorrow.
Earnings Calendar.
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20031023.htm...
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