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Wednesday, October 29, 2003
Good evening friends,
A basically flat day in the markets today with not much going on as the NASDAQ traded in a 13-point range all day although it did finish very close to the high of the day. The market right now is consolidating recent gains. The good news is that we are holding those gains well to this point. The NASDAQ is just 30 points below it's 52 week high, another 2% rise in this index and we'll be at new highs for the year if you can believe that!
Bulletin stocks making new highs today were SNG, EVCI, CHU, TWAV, PRLT and AKAM. AKAM is up to new highs after hours on earnings news. This brings up a topic I'd like to discuss. It is the question of whether or not to hold a stock through earnings. Ladies and gentlemen, if we had the answer for that we'd all be very wealthy. Like anything else, it's nothing more than a gamble to hold through earnings. You simply cannot predict how a stock will react to earnings. I've seen all kinds of examples and have enough experience to say that you just don't know what will happen in any given stock at any given time. I've seen stocks sell off going into the close on earnings day which you would think was indicating bad news coming and then they gap up the next day after the good news release. I've seen stocks rally into the close, indicating a very good report was about to be released and then boom, the stock sells off after hours and gaps down the next day, on both good news and bad news.
These scenarios occur whether the earnings are good or bad. Of course, bad earnings will crush a stock, but you don't know they are going to be bad because the stock may be rallying up into the release. The bottom line is you just don't know and we are gambling if we hold. I didn't buy AKAM or TRPH today for this reason. Both came out of the wedges I had for you in last night's charts. If earning were not today for AKAM and tomorrow for TRPH, I would have bought these two stocks on these breaks above their wedges. The charts of these two stocks are indicating great news will be released but as we have seen before a great chart is no indication that the news will be good and even if it's good, the stock could still sell on the news.
One other comment I would like to make is on the watch list you see on the Bulletin each night. The watch list is just that, stocks I am watching. I may or may not buy these stocks. But when I do, I'll send an Alert. My point being, they are there because the charts look good at the time they go on the Bulletin. If I remove them from the Bulletin, it means the chart is damaged and I am not watching it any longer. Why keep it on the bulletin if I don't plan on buying it? I will not buy a stock with a damaged chart. If the chart mends itself over time, it could certainly re-appear. The watch list is there for you to watch and do your own DD (due diligence). You don't have to buy when I do and you don't have to wait for me to buy if you like the stock. They are there because I expect them to move up at anytime - however, some will not move right away. I may put a stock on the watch list the night after it breaks out. If so, I may not buy the stock because I'm waiting for a pullback and a flag or pennant to set up before entry. I want to have it on my watch list so I can monitor the progress of the chart. Some may keep going before the chart sets up and get away from us that does happen sometime. I try to make it as easy as possible by showing you charts and giving you buy points but I can't be there with you at your computer to execute the trade. You will have to do that yourself and hopefully, if you apply the rules of a disciplined trader, you'll do very well trading the stocks on the Bulletin each night.
There are many to choose from and an overwhelming percentage of them go up as opposed to going south. All buy points hit today went up initially, so if you are day trading these stocks (closing your position the same day), you should be making money if you time your trades correctly. If you chose to hold them and not close out your position each day, I believe you will still make money in these stocks whether you hold for a week, month or a year. We all sell at different times but no matter when you sell, you should be making some profits on these winners. 43 stocks on the Bulletin tonight, plenty to keep you busy.
The newest one ITRA is an example of what I talked about above. It's on the list tonight but it doesn't mean I'll buy it right away. I want to watch it for a favorable pattern to develop and then I'll get in. Right now, it's over extended and should pullback. It's had a nice run and now needs to consolidate. After this consolidation a buy point will be listed. I'll see you all Thursday night.
Earnings Calendar.
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20031023.htm...
See Charts from the links below.
COMP
http://tinyurl.com/sxyo
ITRA
http://tinyurl.com/sxzr
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