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Monday, October 27, 2003
Good evening friends,
I had mentioned in last nights Commentary that I thought we would have some follow through to Friday's closing rally and we got it today although I was not impressed with the volume on the NASDAQ at all today. The DOW had a nice run most of the day and then gave up some of its gains into the close. The NASDAQ had a small trading range today and finished up 17 points, which on the surface looks good but it still closed under the 9 DEMA and for the short term, it is negative for this index.
We had some bulletin stocks making some nice moves today. TELM was up 11%; CKSW blew through its 52 week high reaching 3.85 before traders started to lock in profits. GBN and GEMS also made new 52 wk highs today. I bought SNG today to open a position in another energy stock that looks good. Going forward, I still believe energy is the place to be and now precious metals are starting to look good again. I've added some more to our watch list tonight.
Seems we are seeing some caution ahead of tomorrow's Fed meeting on interest rates. After the Fed's interest rate announcement tomorrow at 2:15 pm EST, things should pick up for stocks one-way or the other. I still believe the trend line will hold at around 1850 but it's a toss up right now. The 50 DMA is rising each day and we need to stay above it to remain a healthy market. Right now that average is at 1857. I don't want to get into any more positions until after the fed meeting and we see how the market reacts. This is why I was not trading much today.
Many charts are broken right now and I'm not getting many good results from my scans the past few days. Some of the charts will need many days even a few weeks to mend before they are ready to break out. Having said that, there are always new stocks breaking out each day, some even breakout in the middle of the day that I don't catch. Ideally, I would like them to appear in my scans the night before the breakout so we can get in but it doesn't always happen that way. We had many stocks that went up after we took a position in the past like ONT, AAC, UDW, TRPH, NXXI, BFUN, BCON and many others. I thought we would get runs like those prior runners with some of our latest entries but it has not developed. If it doesn't develop and the charts break down, it's best to get out and move on. Their will always be another stock moving. Thanks for your patients while waiting for some good set-ups. It's best to wait for the big movers rather than rushing in to buy stocks that are not ready. I'll see you all Tuesday night.
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