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Monday, October 20, 2003

Good evening friends,

A very nice day in the markets today. We got that bounce on the NASDAQ I thought we might get which I talked about in last nights Bulletin. Our 1900 level held up and both the Dow and NSADAQ closed at their highs of the day. It was a busy day for me as I was trying to close out some positions I felt were dead money. I took a loss on both our Biotech stocks IMNR and GENR because I didn't like where that index was headed and I showed you a chart of that last night. I also sold TELM but for a different reason. With earnings out of the way on that stock, it held up well. I think it goes higher from here but I needed to free up some cash for the new positions I took today. I still want to keep the cash I have at this point so when I want to buy a new stock, I'll be selling something to raise the cash. 

Today I bought GEB and XLA; I think both of these are going to make a nice move soon. Stocks on the Bulletin making new 52-week highs today included AFOP, ARTX, CKSW and TSCC. Folks, I think the NASDAQ will be in a trading range between 1900 and 1975 for a couple of weeks. Hopefully by November it can breakout and make a run above 2000 and get that Santa clause rally I've been predicting for months. There is a real good chance that the market will rally going into the end of the year. I say that because The NASDAQ is up about 50% since Jan of this year and people who have rode this thing up will be hesitant to sell before Jan 04 because of tax liabilities. 

Let's face it, if you are sitting on 50% gains and you sell this year, you'll pay taxes on those gains in April 2004.  If you wait and sell in Jan of 2004, then you won't have to pay taxes on that profit until April 2005. The smart money will sell in Jan to get this one-year deferral on their taxes. So for this reason, sellers should dry up in December and the market should rally as a result. The only selling that will take place in December is in stocks that have been down for the year and investors are selling for the tax write off. There won't be enough losers for us to worry about. This is when I'll sell CORV and AAC in late December for the write off. Institutions and mutual funds play this game also. Any big winners you have into Jan you can bet they'll sell off at least a little bit once the New Year begins. So if you are holding the King and other big winners into January you better be ready to sell it on Jan 2nd and then buy it back after it falls. I just wanted to give you a heads up about end of year trading especially for the new subscribers who may be new to the market. We have plenty of time, so we will talk about the year-end strategy more as we get closer. 

Tonight was a pretty good night for scans and I was able to pick up 5 new stocks for the Bulletin. I also received the following in an email today and I though I would share it with you

If you had bought $1000.00 of Nortel stock in 1999, it would now be
Worth $49.00.  Enron, you would have $6.50 left of the original $1,000.00. 
With WorldCom, you would have less than $5.00 left. 
If you had bought $1,000.00 worth of Budweiser (the beer, not the stock)
One year ago, drank all the beer, then turned in the cans for the
10-cent deposit, you would have $214.00. 
Based on the above, my current investment advice is to drink heavily and
Recycle. This is my new retirement program, I call it my 401-Keg
 
Pretty funny isn't it? Full disclosure, I did own WCOM in my IRA and got burned badly on the bankruptcy.  Lucky it was only 10% of my portfolio. I love that 10% rule.  I'll see you all Tuesday night. 







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