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Sunday, October 19, 2003

Good evening friends,

The market was over bought and the sellers came in and took it down on Thursday and Friday.  Everyone's in a panic about this minor correction but remember, the NASDAQ was flat for the week and for the month of October it's up 7% so far. 1900 must hold in my opinion or we could be headed down to the 50 DMA again near 1850-1830 area. We have had a pretty good sell off so far, but when I look at the charts of most Bulletin stocks I see them still above their 9 DEMA and this is a great sign. When stocks sell off and still remain above their 9 DEMA then you know they were way over bought in the first place. If this is truly a Bull market, this is what you will see with the strong stocks. You'll see them sell down to the 9 DEMA and then bounce. Having said that about the Bulletin stocks, I'm afraid I can't say that about many other stocks right now. In fact, many of the leading stocks are breaking down including the Biotech's, which were one of the leading groups of this move. When leadership fails it signals a market in trouble. I'm not saying the NASDAQ is in trouble yet but we need to hold this support right here or it could be a rough couple of weeks coming up. 

I don't have a whole lot to say tonight since I'm not sure which way we are headed right now. I do believe the NASDAQ must hold this level and bounce on Monday morning or unfortunately we will be headed lower for the time being. This time if we should break lower, I will be looking for opportunities to buy the pullback on strong stocks somewhere near the 50 DMA.  Last time we did not buy the pullback because we were not sure if it was going to bounce or fall through that support I mentioned.  This time I feel confident we'll bounce and when we do take positions at the 50 DMA level, we will place tight protective stops in case of any further break down. 

As far as our current holdings, don't fall in love. Place your stops and protect your capital. Right now, most of our stocks are still above the 9 DEMA but should they fall below this level, it's your signal to sell.  This average is my short-term signal and is not for longer-term traders.  If you are planning on staying in a stock for more then a month, do not use this average to determine when to sell. It is used only for very short term trading 1 week or less IMO.  

AMZN is reporting earnings this week and like INTC, I expect the news to be very good. This should carry any Internet stocks along for the ride. Hopefully, we will not see another sell the news situation like INTC was. If we sell off before the AMZN news, it could be just the catalyst to get the market rallying again. I'll see you all Monday night.







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