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Sunday, September 28, 2003
Good evening friends,
Cash is the new king tonight friends. If you are still long this market, I don't know why you would be. I've been selling and you should have sold also. We will have plenty of time to trade later but you can't trade later if you lose all your cash now holding stocks. Trend lines have been broke folks and that is never good news. If there is any good news to come out of this sell off it's the fact that the market is oversold short term. This means a market bounce is due in one to two days. This is for the active short-term trader only. I still favor cash at this time for longer-term investors. I have enclosed a chart of UBET tonight for you to glance at while I make this point. Buy and hold investors in UBET have not made a dime in the stock since we left the board in mid May. I sold UBET at 2.80 just before we left that board to start our own board, free of bashers. The stock is now trading at 2.80 as of the close on Friday. It's at the very price we sold at almost 5 months ago. I make this point because here is a great example of why trading beats buy and hold hands down and you won't ever get me to believe any different. We have more than doubled our money trading stocks with momentum during the last 4+ months while buy and hold investors in UBET (and other stocks) are frustrated and scratching their heads. This is what causes bashing, the frustration of not making any money while the market is going up drives out the ugly in people but yet they hold on to the stock they are in love with. You simply can't fall in love with a stock. I love the stock market but I don't love any stocks. I love to take money out of the stock market every day if I can, while everyone else is sinking money into it. For all the new subscribers out there, lets change your way of thinking right now. Instead of putting your money in the market, try taking some out. By trading and locking in profits, you are taking the money out of the market that someone just put in. For every trade there is a winner and someone is losing on the other side. We are on the winning side more often then not. I hate to take peoples money but unfortunately, this is how the game is played and if they don't want to risk their money they shouldn't be in the game. Someone has to lose and it's my job to make sure you are not that someone. I am convinced Trading beats long term investing and UBET is just one example of this theory. The NASDAQ is another. When we left the UBET board the NASDAQ was at about 1450 give or take a few points. It is now just below 1800 and possibly heading lower. This is a gain of 24% over a little under five months. That is really an outstanding gain and nobody is arguing that point. But can it be sustained? I don't think so. Our gains equal 109% over the same time frame that's 4 times what the NASDAQ did. We did this buy trading and not investing. 4 times the market average putting only 10% or less in any one trade is remarkable. We could have achieved much more if we had put say 50% of our funds in any one trade but doing that is very risky and we want to trade using virtually no risk. Over 100% gain with minimum risk is very hard to do. There isn't a fund manager out there doing what we're doing and certainly not in the short amount of time we have done it. What you are participating in is unprecedented but it's not rocket science, It's not magic, it's just knowing how to read charts and determining which direction a stock will move and when it's going to move. Along with minimizing risk we are maximizing opportunity cost by getting in a stock just before it moves up and not until, thus the buy points. . We don't want to have our cash sitting idle waiting for a stock to move. If we do this, we are missing out on other stocks moving and this is the opportunity cost. Can we sustain our gains? Of course we can. Why? Because we are now 80% cash as a result of reading the NASDAQ chart and knowing this correction was coming. Now we can sit back and let the market correct as low as it wants to go and it can't take any of our cash with it because we have safely taken it out of the market at the correct time. We will be back in the market when the opportunity presents itself and we will have plenty of cash to buy the next cycle of big gainers. Hang in there, better days are on the way but we have to ride the storm out (in cash) for now. If you must trade, I have added a few stocks to the Bulletin that I feel you can safely buy on pullbacks. I've added limit prices in the comment's area of these stocks to help you with support areas. However, trading these stocks will yield minimal gain until the market can mend itself. For this reason, I will not be trading much until I feel the market is ready for an advance. I started tonight's Bulletin with the same statement I'll end it with to reiterate and drive home this point, “ cash is king right now”. I'll see you all Monday night
* REMINDER- I am coaching in a fall baseball tournament in Nevada on the 16-18 Oct. It's a five-hour drive so I will be leaving Wednesday night the 15th. Because of this, only a quick Bulletin will be issued the 15th. I will issue a full Bulletin from Nevada Thursday evening from the hotel providing I have connection. If not, there will be no Bulletin for that night. I will not be on the boards Thursday or Friday the 16th and 17th but will view all posts in the evenings from the hotel. This is the final baseball tournament of the season. |
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