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Sunday, December 04, 2005
Market Recap
There was more good economic news out Friday morning before the bell with 215, 000 jobs added to payrolls last month. The good news just keeps on coming; the economy is on a roll and looking very robust into the end of 2005. Wall Street's reaction to this news on Friday was mute because it also gives the Fed more reason to keep on lifting interest rates. Last Thursday, the market snapped back from a three day rest with a super rally, but Friday the market could not follow through suggesting more consolidation is needed before this market moves higher.
The market was split Friday with the Dow down 35 points, the Nasdaq up 6 points and the S&P flat. For the week, the markets were flat even though every bit of economic data released was better then expected. This tells us that the market is still consolidating from that massive run-up in November.
Day Trading in a Bull Market?
Swing trading is a term we use to describe a position trade which may last any where from several days to several weeks, or even as long as a three months or more. In Day Trading, we normally close out all positions on an intraday basis. This type of trading will often reduces the risk of holding a stock over night. However, in a bull market, is it really wise to close out your positions for no other reason other than the trading day is coming to an end?
Sometimes day trading can reduce your overall profits in the stock market when the markets are running up in Bull market mode. This begs the question, “In a Bull market, why day trade at all?” If stocks are running, they will likely gap up each morning and if you close your positions each day, you cannot profit from these gaps. Instead, you will have to pay up each day to join the party. Often times day traders find themselves baby sitting cash while looking for favorable trades to place, all the while they are missing the markets morning move up. While day trading is not a bad idea, it can sometimes reduce your overall profits during a full fledge bull market run. Day trading has its place in a flat or range bound market, but I tend to do a lot less day trading in Bull markets and more swing trading because I do not mind holding stocks overnight when the markets are in great technical shape.
If you keep an open mind about the market, certainly it can be seen that there are times when holding a position for longer than a single day can be beneficial to your bottom line. Many times for example, we take up a position and hold a stock for several days, if not longer. Often times longer duration trades can turn out far more profitable than trying to day trade that same stock each day if the swing trade is executed and managed correctly.
Swing and Sing
With this said, it should be noted that we are not prescribing a "buy, hold, and hope" mentality. If anything, you need to be on your toes just as much with swing trading as with day trading. Profit taking and risk management needs to happen with just as much speed in positions held for multiple days as with trades made on an intraday basis. The only significant difference is that while managing the trade, you also work to keep an open mind regarding the upside potential of the trade over an extended period of time. When swing trading, try not to be so quick to take profits and move on to the next trade. Having patience while protecting profits with a trailing stop loss can result in spectacular swing trading gains in a bull market.
The basic idea of swing trading is that you want to attempt a trade in a stock which you feel may have additional upside if held longer than a day. Typically, these would be slightly lower risk stocks which have basically more reliable or predictable longer term charts behind them. This is in contrast to day trading where we do not care about the risk of holding a stock over night because we are only interested in the stocks momentum for that particular day.
Regardless of how you actually go about managing positions which are held longer than a single day, or whether you even combine swing trading with your day trading at all, the basic idea here is to at least consider holding at least some stocks as swing trades when the potential upside and benefits of being long a Bull market may outweigh the risks of having open positions overnight.
Stockcharts Listing
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STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings you can either use this link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
For New Members:
Please take a moment to read the "How To Use The Bulletin" link at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical you understand how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented. |
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