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Sunday, March 21, 2004
Good evening friends,
Market Recap
The market continues to frustrate many investors and traders as it has done for the last 8 weeks or so. The NASDAQ closed at its low on Friday, and it is now just 55 points above the 200 day moving average. As I mentioned last week, this average rises every day and as of Friday's close, it stands at 1884. Lately I have been keeping a very close eye on this major average as it is a very good long term trend indicator. Nothing has changed from last week, I am forecasting that the NASDAQ will fall and touch the 200 day moving average. On the day that happens, I will be sending major Alerts to get back in the market on all our favorite stocks.
Plan Ahead
Start making a list of stocks to buy. I will be working on the Bulletin's favorite charts this week, identifying my favorite charts on the Bulletin. These favorite charts will be the ones I buy first when the NASDAQ hits the 200 SMA. You will need to be prepared ahead of time and be ready to act when this happens. If this should happen, we will go long but always remember to have protective stops in place because nothing is guaranteed.
We could fall right through the 200 SMA, and a close below the average will be very negative for the markets. Any close below this average would be our signal to sell out of all long positions, even if we had just bought them that day when it touched and we thought it would bounce.
How It Might Happen
If the average goes below the 200 SMA on an intra day basis, do not worry so much about that. What matters is how the NASDAQ closes. My guess is we will either:
A) come close and not hit it at all, then bounce from there, or
B) NASDAQ will go below the average on and intra day basis and try to scare everyone out before the close, then bounce back near the close.
Remember that the 200 SMA should act as support, but markets sometimes over shoot and go slightly below support before popping back up by the close. It will definitely be interesting to see how this unfolds.
TWo Big Caps to Watch
MSFT and DELL, two big cap stocks that weigh heavily on the NASDAQ are below their respective 200 SMAs. This is a negative and has been weighing on the NASDAQ. These charts must start repairing themselves if the NASDAQ is to have a successful attempt at reversing direction. MSFT is the biggest stock on the NASDAQ and has been a big drag on this index for many weeks. It is like dragging a ball and chain up a hill. It can be done if you are in good shape, but if you are a bit sick, it is very hard to do. The NASDAQ is sick right now, and MSFT is the ball and chain.
Some OTC BB stocks for your watch list include SVSE, FSRC, DSNY, NEOP, WHAI, and UTYW.
As always, thank-you for your support past, present and future! Have a great night everyone; we'll see you all Sunday evening.
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