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Thursday, November 20, 2003
Good evening friends,
A wild 100+ point swing on the Dow today with a drop at the open on terrorist news over seas, then some good economic news came out that ignited a rally. The rally lasted for most of the day and then, in the last hour, the bottom fell out. The NASDAQ followed the Dow as well and went exactly as predicted in last night's comments. It ran up to a high of 1916 and then quickly reversed and headed south very fast. This would have been an opportune time to short the market and some stocks just above this 1910 level as I mentioned last night.
This market is in trouble and if you are still not in cash you should be. I read on the message board today that some of you have followed my advice and are now 100% cash. Congratulations, I'm not even 100% cash yet but could be very soon. Tomorrow I'm expecting more selling at the open and what's left of the week doesn't look good. Hopefully, a bounce will come from over-sold levels and we can play this bounce starting Monday next week. We should get a little rally heading into Thanksgiving but don't expect too much.
It seems the times ahead are not going to be for the bulls. The bears are back and you need to be in cash or short the market at this time. The longer-term trend is up and we are still in a bull market until that trend changes. But for the short term, we must prepare ourselves for this correction. Every bull market has periods of correction and this is no different. We will have our share of corrections but as long as we stay above the 200 DMA, it will be considered a bull market. Should we fall below that average, short everything in sight but I highly doubt we'll get to that point.
Because of the dramatic sell off in the last hour of trading today, I have no new stocks tonight. I do have some charts of possible short candidates tonight but I am not advising you to short these until we bounce up from over sold levels again like we did today. Today was good shorting if you timed it right around 1910. Keep your heads and don't panic, follow the charts and do what the charts tell you to do. This is the 2nd time in the 6 months we have had the service that I have recommended we go to all cash. Both times, we have been in cash before the sell offs occurred.
How can I time this you ask? The answer is in the charts. You must learn to be an effective chart reader and when you have mastered this skill, you will never have to turn on your TV to listen to the talking heads on BSNBC again. I never listen to anything I hear on those channels, I don't need them and neither do you. They are of no help to us; even their ticker is 15 minutes behind. They continuously feed us with hype, bad stocks and other propaganda that you just don't need. I leave you with this: ask yourself this question, have you ever bought a stock that you heard about on TV that has actually gone up? Back in my dumboberry days, I used to buy every stock that I heard about on the nightly business report and a couple others shows like that and then sat there and wondered why they always went down after I bought them. Of course I knew nothing about charts at the time.
Well, enough of that ranting. I'm not trying to cause a panic because it's too early for that yet. You still have plenty of time to sell and go to cash if you haven't. Don't let your profits slip away by holding stocks forever. We know the market has broken the short term up trend so why do we want to hold stocks? They're going to go down so we are out and we'll wait for a better time to get back in. Simple stuff right?
Here is a quick recap of our long positions. After our recent selling activity, here is what is left in the official TWPD Trade Record. The closed trade record is up 151% after today's sales of EVCI and BCON with a profit of 40% and 22% respectively. We currently have positions in SCON, PMU, HEC, EAG, ARIA, NMGC, SSTR, HSKA and UAX. Of these stocks, they are all still looking good except EAG. We may have to jettison this one tomorrow. HEC doesn't look great but not bad enough to sell just yet. I will not be available for the first two hours of trading tomorrow morning as I have some personal business to attend to. Have a great night everyone, I'll see you Sunday evening.
Flash back Sep 9th Bulletin
New Today BFUN .70 9/09/03 Comments = Looks like it's ready to launch buy now (This stock proceeded up to a high of 3.72 two weeks later, a 400%+ gain)
Reminder: The market will be open a half day on Friday November 28. I will not be publishing a Bulletin on Thanksgiving evening. However I will send out a brief commentary. If I find any hot stocks that may be ready to move, I'll list them in the commentary. I will be out of town and will not available for trading on Friday November 28 so there will be no alerts sent that day.
Note: Friends, there are many people out there who won't even have a meal this
Thanksgiving. Please, find it in your hearts to donate some canned goods, potatoes, rolls or
even a turkey to your local food bank. Let's help the less fortunate to be a little happier this
Holiday Season. Your donations will be greatly appreciated by those who receive them. Thank-you.
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